Segunda DivisiónSabadell vs 
Oviedo Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 87.0% for over 2.5 to 37.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.9%. On the card count, Oviedo are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 18.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.8%
43.8%
71.4%
45.8%
Card handicap
| Sabadell line | Sabadell | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.2% | 76.8% |
| -0.5 | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| +0.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| +1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 73.2% | 26.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 60.6% | 39.4% |
This season (2026/27)
3.2Sabadell cards per game17.4Sabadell fouls per game2.8Oviedo cards per game13.2Oviedo fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sabadell vs Oviedo. Slightly more cards are projected for Oviedo for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
72.6%Over 3.5 cards13.1%Any red card69.8%Sabadell over 1.5 cards71.4%Oviedo over 1.5 cards73.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Sabadell over 1.5 cards sits at 69.8% and Oviedo at 71.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (Sabadell 6.9%, Oviedo 6.6%). This season Sabadell have averaged 3.2 cards a game and Oviedo 2.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sabadell vs Oviedo?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 72.6% for Sabadell vs Oviedo.
Will there be a red card in Sabadell vs Oviedo?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sabadell vs Oviedo?
The model rates Oviedo to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 18.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
