Segunda División
Las Palmas vs Burgos Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 68.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 84.5% for over 2.5 to 32.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.0%. On the card count, Burgos are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 18.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 84.5% | 15.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 32.6% | 67.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.2%
35.2%
72.5%
47.2%
Card handicap
| Las Palmas line | Las Palmas | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| +0.5 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| +1.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.8% | 14.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 64.1% | 35.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Las Palmas cards per game12.0Las Palmas fouls per game2.2Burgos cards per game17.2Burgos fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Las Palmas vs Burgos. Slightly more cards are projected for Burgos for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
68.5%Over 3.5 cards13.7%Any red card62.2%Las Palmas over 1.5 cards72.5%Burgos over 1.5 cards76.1%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Las Palmas over 1.5 cards sits at 62.2% and Burgos at 72.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.7% (Las Palmas 8.9%, Burgos 5.3%). This season Las Palmas have averaged 1.4 cards a game and Burgos 2.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 68.5% for Las Palmas vs Burgos.
Will there be a red card in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The model rates Burgos to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 18.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
