Segunda DivisiónCeuta vs 
Valladolid Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 77.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 89.6% for over 2.5 to 43.1% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.1%. Head to head on cards, Valladolid are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.7%, with a level count at 17.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 89.6% | 10.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 43.1% | 56.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
71.9%
46.4%
75.8%
51.6%
Card handicap
| Ceuta line | Ceuta | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.2% | 77.8% |
| -0.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| +1.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 89.6% | 10.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 71.1% | 28.9% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Ceuta cards per game15.0Ceuta fouls per game3.0Valladolid cards per game12.2Valladolid fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ceuta vs Valladolid. Slightly more cards are projected for Valladolid for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
77.1%Over 3.5 cards18.0%Any red card71.9%Ceuta over 1.5 cards75.8%Valladolid over 1.5 cards81.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Ceuta over 1.5 cards sits at 71.9% and Valladolid at 75.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.0% (Ceuta 7.3%, Valladolid 11.6%). This season Ceuta have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Valladolid 3.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 77.1% for Ceuta vs Valladolid.
Will there be a red card in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
The model rates Valladolid to pick up more cards at 44.7%, with a level count at 17.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
