AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
LecceLecceLWLLW
Full time0-2Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1017:00UK16°C · Clearing
JuventusJuventusDLWDL

Lecce 0-2 Juventus cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.7%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.3%

Result

Lecce0-2Juventus
1 yellow cardsLecce 1, Juventus 0
1 red cardsLecce 1, Juventus 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 55.7% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 93.3% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards44.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Fabio Maresca

Recorded match referee.

Fabio Maresca in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 16 4
Goals 2.44 Not available
Yellow cards 4.56 Not available
Red cards 0.50 Not available
Corners 9.2 Not available
Fouls 26.1 Not available
Both teams scored 44% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 38% Not available
Home wins 38% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Lecce vs Juventus 0-2 2 No 1 1 8 22
10 Oct 2026 Genoa vs Fiorentina 2-1 3 Yes 8 0 7 21
14 Sep 2026 Torino vs Roma 0-2 2 No 2 0 9 27
24 Aug 2026 Bologna vs Lazio 0-1 1 No 8 0 14 37
24 May 2026 Cremonese vs Como 1-4 5 Yes 6 3 6 26
17 May 2026 Roma vs Lazio 2-0 2 No 5 2 11 32
3 May 2026 Sassuolo vs Milan 2-0 2 No 8 1 5 32
20 Apr 2026 Lecce vs Fiorentina 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 7 21
11 Apr 2026 Atalanta vs Juventus 0-1 1 No 4 0 15 18
6 Apr 2026 Udinese vs Como 0-0 0 No 5 0 8 22

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lecce vs Juventus. Slightly more cards are projected for Lecce for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 65.5% 34.6%
3.5 cards 44.3% 55.7%
4.5 cards 26.4% 73.6%
5.5 cards 14.0% 86.0%

Who picks up more cards

Lecce
43.0%
Level
22.0%
Juventus
35.0%

Team cards lines

Lecce

Over 1.5
53.1%
Over 2.5
27.5%

Juventus

Over 1.5
47.2%
Over 2.5
22.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lecce's; Juventus gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lecce line Lecce Juventus
-1.5 23.6% 76.4%
-0.5 43.0% 57.0%
+0.5 65.0% 35.0%
+1.5 82.4% 17.6%

Red card

Any red card6.7%
Lecce red card3.9%
Juventus red card2.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 68.4% 31.6%
22.5 fouls 55.4% 44.6%
24.5 fouls 42.3% 57.7%
LecceLecce

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lecce at home and Juventus away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

JuventusJuventus
Statistic
Lecce
Juventus
Yellow cards per game
2.0
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.0

Matches with card data
2
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 44.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 65.5% for over 2.5 to 14.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.3%. Head to head on cards, Lecce are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 22.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Lecce over 1.5 cards sits at 53.1% and Juventus at 47.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.7% (Lecce 3.9%, Juventus 2.9%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

44.3%Over 3.5 cards
6.7%Any red card
43.0%Most cards: Lecce
53.1%Lecce over 1.5 cards
47.2%Juventus over 1.5 cards
55.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.7%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianLecce are the pick to collect more cards at 43.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 44.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
LecceLecce

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

JuventusJuventus
Statistic
Lecce
Juventus
fouls per game
12.6
14.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Lecce vs Juventus?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 44.3% for Lecce vs Juventus.
Will there be a red card in Lecce vs Juventus?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 6.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lecce vs Juventus?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lecce to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 22.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Serie ALecce fixtures and statsJuventus fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.