AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Serie A
LazioLazioDWWWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1114:00UK19°C · Clearing
CagliariCagliariWWDLL

Lazio vs Cagliari cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.5%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lazio vs Cagliari. It tips Cagliari for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.1% 27.0%
3.5 cards 53.6% 46.5%
4.5 cards 35.0% 65.0%
5.5 cards 20.5% 79.5%

Who picks up more cards

Lazio
29.1%
Level
19.8%
Cagliari
51.1%

Team cards lines

Lazio

Over 1.5
48.1%
Over 2.5
23.2%

Cagliari

Over 1.5
63.9%
Over 2.5
38.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lazio's; Cagliari gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lazio line Lazio Cagliari
-1.5 14.4% 85.6%
-0.5 29.1% 70.9%
+0.5 48.9% 51.1%
+1.5 68.4% 31.6%

Red card

Any red card18.9%
Lazio red card11.3%
Cagliari red card8.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.0% 27.0%
22.5 fouls 60.8% 39.2%
24.5 fouls 47.9% 52.2%
LazioLazio

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lazio at home and Cagliari away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CagliariCagliari
Statistic
Lazio
Cagliari
Cards per game at this venue
1.7
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.7
·

Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.9
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
66.7%

Matches with card data
4
6
Red cards this season
·
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.1% for over 2.5 to 20.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. Between the two sides, Cagliari are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.1%, with a level count at 19.8%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Lazio over 1.5 cards sits at 48.1% and Cagliari at 63.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.9% (Lazio 11.3%, Cagliari 8.6%).

53.6%Over 3.5 cards
18.9%Any red card
51.1%Most cards: Cagliari
48.1%Lazio over 1.5 cards
63.9%Cagliari over 1.5 cards
60.8%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCagliari are the pick to collect more cards at 51.1%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
LazioLazio

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CagliariCagliari
Statistic
Lazio
Cagliari
cards per game
·
1.7

fouls per game
11.4
12.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Lazio vs Cagliari?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.6% for Lazio vs Cagliari.
Will there be a red card in Lazio vs Cagliari?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lazio vs Cagliari?
The model rates Cagliari to pick up more cards at 51.1%, with a level count at 19.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie ALazio fixtures and statsCagliari fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.