AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 4 Nov 2026

Segunda División
Las PalmasLas PalmasDLLWW
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1117:30UK
EldenseEldenseWWWLL

Las Palmas vs Eldense cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined70.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined29.8%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards70.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Las Palmas vs Eldense. Slightly more cards are projected for Eldense for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 85.5% 14.5%
3.5 cards 70.2% 29.8%
4.5 cards 51.9% 48.1%
5.5 cards 34.4% 65.6%

Who picks up more cards

Las Palmas
35.5%
Level
18.7%
Eldense
45.8%

Team cards lines

Las Palmas

Over 1.5
65.6%
Over 2.5
38.9%

Eldense

Over 1.5
71.9%
Over 2.5
46.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Las Palmas's; Eldense gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Las Palmas line Las Palmas Eldense
-1.5 19.9% 80.1%
-0.5 35.5% 64.5%
+0.5 54.2% 45.8%
+1.5 71.8% 28.2%

Red card

Any red card11.4%
Las Palmas red card7.1%
Eldense red card4.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 83.9% 16.1%
22.5 fouls 73.4% 26.6%
24.5 fouls 60.7% 39.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Eldense Daniel Palencia Caballero 2 6.5 3.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Las PalmasLas Palmas

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Las Palmas at home and Eldense away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

EldenseEldense
Statistic
Las Palmas
Eldense
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.5

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
3.3

Yellow cards per game
2.4
2.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.1

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.5
1.1

Matches with card data
6
6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,093Matches graded

In 8,543 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 4 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 55.7%✓ 66.7%✓ 60.8%✓ 59.2%✓ 51.3%✓ 66.0%✗ 69.8%✓ 66.7%✓ 73.4%✗ 74.9%
8 of 10 recent calls hit.
Newcastle vs Everton2026-11-02Over 3.5 55.7%Hit
La Coruna vs Osasuna2026-11-02Over 3.5 66.7%Hit
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina2026-11-02Over 3.5 60.8%Hit
Atalanta vs Parma2026-11-02Under 3.5 59.2%Hit
Lorient vs Brest2026-11-02Under 3.5 51.3%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 70.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 85.5% for over 2.5 to 34.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. On the card count, Eldense are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 18.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Las Palmas over 1.5 cards sits at 65.6% and Eldense at 71.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Las Palmas 7.1%, Eldense 4.6%). Eldense’s most frequent referee this season, Daniel Palencia Caballero, has averaged 6.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

70.2%Over 3.5 cards
11.4%Any red card
45.8%Most cards: Eldense
65.6%Las Palmas over 1.5 cards
71.9%Eldense over 1.5 cards
73.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 70.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherDaniel Palencia Caballero, Eldense’s most frequent referee this season, averages 6.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianEldense are the pick to collect more cards at 45.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Las PalmasLas Palmas

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

EldenseEldense
Statistic
Las Palmas
Eldense
fouls per game
12.1
12.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Las Palmas vs Eldense?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 70.2% for Las Palmas vs Eldense.
Will there be a red card in Las Palmas vs Eldense?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Las Palmas vs Eldense?
The model rates Eldense to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 18.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónLas Palmas fixtures and statsEldense fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.