Segunda División
Las Palmas vs Burgos Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Draw at 72.7%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Las Palmas are favoured at 41.8%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 0.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 1 | 23.4% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 12.3% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 6.1% |
| Burgos by 1 | 17.7% |
| Burgos by 2 | 7.1% |
| Burgos by 3+ | 2.5% |
| Draw | 30.9% |
Goal handicap
| Las Palmas line | Las Palmas | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| -0.5 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| +0.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| +1.5 | 90.4% | 9.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Las Palmas goals scored per game1.2Las Palmas goals conceded per game1.6Burgos goals scored per game1.2Burgos goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Las Palmas or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
41.9%Both Teams to Score34.8%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Las Palmas are favoured at 41.8%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Las Palmas 0 · 3 draws · Burgos 2 · 0.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Las Palmas vs Burgos at 72.7%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Las Palmas at 60.6% and Burgos at 39.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Segunda División, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
