Super League Greece
Kalamata vs 
Panathinaikos Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 39.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 50.8% for over 22.5 to 20.5% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.8%. On the shot count, Kalamata are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.4%, with a level count at 5.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.5% | 79.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
62.4%
46.7%
32.5%
46.5%
30.8%
18.8%
Shot handicap
| Kalamata line | Kalamata | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| -2.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| -0.5 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| +0.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.9% | 66.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Kalamata.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
39.5%Over 24.5 shots46.7%Kalamata over 12.5 shots30.8%Panathinaikos over 12.5 shots56.1%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Kalamata over 12.5 shots sits at 46.7% and Panathinaikos at 30.8%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 39.5% for Kalamata vs Panathinaikos.
Which team will have more shots in Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
The model rates Kalamata to take more shots at 58.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,000 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Super League Greece, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
