Panetolikos vs PAOK prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Panetolikos vs PAOK: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 19 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Panetolikos

LWWWL

Sun, 20 Sep 202619:00UK
PAOK

DWWLW

Model’s top convictions

74%

Draw or PAOK

71%

Over 1.5 goals

55%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Model pick

PAOK46.3%

Win probability · fair 2.16

Top signals

Draw or PAOKLikely74.0%Fair 1.35
Over 1.5 goalsLikely71.2%Fair 1.40
Under 2.5 goalsClose call55.3%Fair 1.81

Model read

A measured edge to PAOK: 46% is the model's line for this Super League Greece meeting on 20 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing PAOK at 61%. Caution noted. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 45% with both teams to score at 50%. 3) Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Panetolikos against W3 D2 L1 for PAOK. The recent series reads 0 wins for Panetolikos, 1 draws and 4 for PAOK over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16)).

Value & higher-risk angles

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.1%@ 2.12
PAOK win46.3%@ 2.16
Over 2.5 goals44.7%@ 2.24
Medium risk

Panetolikos or draw53.7%@ 1.86
Not both teams to score50.5%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.61
0-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.57
0-0 correct score9.1%@ 10.96

Model vs market

Panetolikos

26.0%+9.8%

Draw

27.7%+4.8%

PAOK

46.3%-14.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16)

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely71.2%Fair 1.40
Over 2.5Unlikely44.7%Fair 2.24
BTTS · YesClose call49.5%Fair 2.02

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call47.1%Fair 2.12
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely36.7%Fair 2.72
Over 10.5 cornersLong shot27.6%Fair 3.62
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot20.1%Fair 4.98
Most cornersPanetolikos51.5%PAOK37.1%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call52.4%Fair 1.91
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely41.0%Fair 2.44
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely30.6%Fair 3.27
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot21.7%Fair 4.60

Recent shot volume

Panetolikos11.5 taken15.7 faced
PAOK12.8 taken15.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.2%2.544.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Form & head-to-head

PanetolikosLWWWL
PAOKDWWLW

Last 5 meetings: Panetolikos 0 · 1 draws · PAOK 4 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-01-10Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK
2025-09-20PAOK 0-0 Panetolikos
2024-12-15Panetolikos 0-1 PAOK
2024-08-25PAOK 2-0 Panetolikos
2024-02-25Panetolikos 1-3 PAOK

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

PanetolikosPAOK
League position#4 of 14#2 of 14
Record W-D-L3-0-13-0-1
Current streakL1W1
Record, home vs away2-0-01-0-1
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.57 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 39% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Panetolikos win5.503.85
Draw4.003.61
PAOK win1.572.16
Over 2.5 goals1.832.24
Under 2.5 goals1.981.81

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Panetolikos win3.85
Draw3.61
PAOK win2.16
Both teams to score2.02

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.24
Over 3.5 goals4.25
Panetolikos most3.85
PAOK most2.16

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.63
Over 8.5 corners2.07
Over 9.5 corners2.76
Over 10.5 corners3.90
Panetolikos most1.94
PAOK most2.69

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.22
Over 3.5 cards1.55
Over 4.5 cards2.20
Over 5.5 cards3.51
Panetolikos most2.71
PAOK most2.30

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.84
Over 8.5 SoT2.34
Over 9.5 SoT3.10
Panetolikos most2.10
PAOK most2.49

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.91
Over 24.5 shots2.44
Over 26.5 shots3.27
Over 28.5 shots4.60
Panetolikos most1.72
PAOK most2.76

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.29
Over 24.5 fouls1.51
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 52.4% Over 24.5 41.0% Over 26.5 30.6% Over 28.5 21.7%
Most: Panetolikos 58.0% Most: PAOK 36.3%
Panetolikos Over 13.2 40.1% PAOK Over 13.2 25.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.3% Over 7.5 54.4% Over 8.5 42.8% Over 9.5 32.3%
Most: Panetolikos 47.7% Most: PAOK 40.1%
Panetolikos Over 4.2 41.1% PAOK Over 4.2 35.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.8% Over 3.5 64.5% Over 4.5 45.4%
Most: Panetolikos 36.9% Most: PAOK 43.6%
Panetolikos Over 1.8 62.6% PAOK Over 1.8 67.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Panetolikos clean sheet 23.5%
PAOK clean sheet 36.0%
Panetolikos win to nil 14.4%
PAOK win to nil 26.9%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 26.0% draw 27.7% away 46.3%
double_chance
1X 53.7% 12 72.3% X2 74.1%
dnb
home 35.9% away 64.1%
btts
yes 49.5% no 50.5%
clean_sheet
home 23.5% away 36.1%
win_to_nil
home 14.4% away 27.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.2% home_by_2 7.0% home_by_3plus 2.8%
away_by_1 23.2% away_by_2 14.2% away_by_3plus 9.0%
correct_score
0-0 9.1% 0-1 11.7% 0-2 8.9%
0-3 4.3% 0-4 1.6% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 8.0% 1-1 13.1% 1-2 9.1%
1-3 4.4% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 4.4% 2-1 6.4% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 1.5% 3-1 2.2% 3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.4% 4-1 0.5% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.9% under_0.5 9.1% over_1.5 71.2%
under_1.5 28.8% over_2.5 44.7% under_2.5 55.3%
over_3.5 23.5% under_3.5 76.5% over_4.5 10.4%
under_4.5 89.6% over_5.5 4.0% under_5.5 96.0%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 63.9% under_0.5 36.1% over_1.5 27.1%
under_1.5 72.9% over_2.5 8.4% under_2.5 91.6%
team_away
over_0.5 76.5% under_0.5 23.5% over_1.5 42.4%
under_1.5 57.6% over_2.5 17.8% under_2.5 82.2%
most
home 26.0% draw 27.7% away 46.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.8% away_+2.5 97.2% home_-1.5 9.8%
away_+1.5 90.2% home_-0.5 26.0% away_+0.5 74.1%
home_+0.5 53.7% away_-0.5 46.3% home_+1.5 76.9%
away_-1.5 23.1% home_+2.5 91.1% away_-2.5 9.0%
total_exact
exact_0 9.1% exact_1 19.7% exact_2 26.5%
exact_3 21.2% exact_4 13.1% exact_5 6.5%
exact_6 2.7% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 17.8% draw 39.4% away 42.8%
total
over_0.5 71.6% under_0.5 28.4% over_1.5 35.8%
under_1.5 64.2% over_2.5 13.3% under_2.5 86.7%
btts
yes 19.6% no 80.4%
total_exact
exact_0 28.4% exact_1 35.8% exact_2 22.5%
exact_3 9.4% exact_4plus 3.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.8% draw 41.0% away 32.1%
total
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.3%
under_1.5 64.7% over_2.5 13.0% under_2.5 87.0%
btts
yes 21.3% no 78.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 12.9% H/D 3.6% H/A 1.4%
D/H 10.6% D/D 16.2% D/A 12.7%
A/H 2.0% A/D 6.3% A/A 34.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 61.3% under_7.5 38.7% over_8.5 48.4%
under_8.5 51.6% over_9.5 36.2% under_9.5 63.8%
over_10.5 25.6% under_10.5 74.4% over_11.5 17.3%
under_11.5 82.8% over_12.5 11.0% under_12.5 89.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.0% under_3.5 36.0% over_4.5 47.6%
under_4.5 52.4% over_5.5 32.9% under_5.5 67.1%
team_away
over_3.5 53.4% under_3.5 46.6% over_4.5 36.5%
under_4.5 63.5% over_5.5 23.0% under_5.5 77.0%
most
home 51.7% draw 11.2% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.1% away_+3.5 78.9% home_-1.5 40.4%
away_+1.5 59.6% home_-0.5 51.7% away_+0.5 48.4%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+1.5 73.0%
away_-1.5 27.0% home_+3.5 88.0% away_-3.5 12.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 52.4% under_22.5 47.6% over_24.5 41.0%
under_24.5 59.0% over_26.5 30.6% under_26.5 69.4%
over_28.5 21.7% under_28.5 78.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 63.2% under_10.5 36.8% over_12.5 47.5%
under_12.5 52.5% over_14.5 33.2% under_14.5 66.8%
team_away
over_10.5 47.9% under_10.5 52.1% over_12.5 32.1%
under_12.5 67.9% over_14.5 19.9% under_14.5 80.2%
most
home 58.0% draw 5.7% away 36.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.7% away_+4.5 65.3% home_-2.5 46.1%
away_+2.5 53.9% home_-0.5 58.0% away_+0.5 42.0%
home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.3% home_+2.5 74.2%
away_-2.5 25.8% home_+4.5 82.8% away_-4.5 17.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.3% under_6.5 33.7% over_7.5 54.4%
under_7.5 45.6% over_8.5 42.8% under_8.5 57.2%
over_9.5 32.3% under_9.5 67.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 57.3% under_3.5 42.7% over_4.5 41.1%
under_4.5 58.9% over_5.5 27.6% under_5.5 72.4%
team_away
over_3.5 52.0% under_3.5 48.0% over_4.5 35.7%
under_4.5 64.3% over_5.5 22.9% under_5.5 77.1%
most
home 47.7% draw 12.2% away 40.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.3% away_+2.5 74.7% home_-0.5 47.7%
away_+0.5 52.3% home_+0.5 59.9% away_-0.5 40.1%
home_+2.5 80.5% away_-2.5 19.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.8% under_2.5 18.2% over_3.5 64.5%
under_3.5 35.5% over_4.5 45.4% under_4.5 54.6%
over_5.5 28.5% under_5.5 71.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.6% under_1.5 37.4% over_2.5 35.7%
under_2.5 64.4%
team_away
over_1.5 67.0% under_1.5 33.0% over_2.5 40.5%
under_2.5 59.5%
most
home 36.9% draw 19.5% away 43.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.5% away_+1.5 79.6% home_-0.5 36.9%
away_+0.5 63.1% home_+0.5 56.4% away_-0.5 43.6%
home_+1.5 74.3% away_-1.5 25.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.9% under_20.5 13.1% over_22.5 77.7%
under_22.5 22.3% over_24.5 66.1% under_24.5 34.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.3% under_9.5 17.7% over_11.5 66.1%
under_11.5 33.9% over_13.5 47.5% under_13.5 52.5%
team_away
over_9.5 83.6% under_9.5 16.4% over_11.5 68.1%
under_11.5 31.9% over_13.5 49.8% under_13.5 50.2%
most
home 45.1% draw 6.6% away 48.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.7% away_+3.5 73.3% home_-0.5 45.1%
away_+0.5 54.9% home_+2.5 64.7% away_-2.5 35.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.1% no 81.9%
home
yes 11.4% no 88.6%
away
yes 7.5% no 92.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Panetolikos predictions · PAOK predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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