Atromitos vs Kifisia prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Atromitos vs Kifisia: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Atromitos

WLLDD

Sat, 19 Sep 202617:00UK
Kifisia

WDLLD

Model’s top convictions

78%

Atromitos or draw

71%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Atromitos51.4%

Win probability · fair 1.95

Top signals

Atromitos or drawVery likely78.2%Fair 1.28
Over 1.5 goalsLikely70.6%Fair 1.42
Under 2.5 goalsClose call56.0%Fair 1.79

Model read

The model leans Atromitos at 51% when Atromitos host Kifisia in the Super League Greece on 19 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The numbers that frame it: • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 47%. • The run in: Atromitos arrive W1 D2 L3, Kifisia W1 D3 L2. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Atromitos, 1 draws and 2 for Kifisia, averaging 2.0 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.0%@ 2.27
Over 9.5 corners39.6%@ 2.53
Over 10.5 corners30.3%@ 3.30
Medium risk

Not both teams to score53.0%@ 1.89
Over 8.5 corners50.0%@ 2.00
Draw or Kifisia48.6%@ 2.06
Random finds

1-0 correct score12.8%@ 7.82
1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.91
2-0 correct score10.3%@ 9.70

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Atromitos

51.4%

Draw

26.8%

Kifisia

21.8%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely70.6%Fair 1.42
Over 2.5Unlikely44.0%Fair 2.27
BTTS · YesClose call47.0%Fair 2.13

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call50.0%Fair 2.00
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely39.6%Fair 2.53
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely30.3%Fair 3.30
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot22.5%Fair 4.44
Most cornersAtromitos55.1%Kifisia33.9%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call52.1%Fair 1.92
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely40.7%Fair 2.46
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely30.3%Fair 3.31
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot21.4%Fair 4.68

Recent shot volume

Atromitos12.2 taken13.0 faced
Kifisia12.5 taken12.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.6%2.544.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.570.6%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

AtromitosWLLDD
KifisiaWDLLD

Last 5 meetings: Atromitos 2 · 1 draws · Kifisia 2 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-05-12Kifisia 0-3 Atromitos
2026-04-08Atromitos 0-0 Kifisia
2026-02-07Kifisia 0-1 Atromitos
2025-11-01Atromitos 1-2 Kifisia
2024-04-20Atromitos 1-2 Kifisia

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AtromitosKifisia
League position#10 of 14#12 of 14
Record W-D-L0-2-20-2-2
Current streakD2D1
Record, home vs away0-1-10-0-2
Red cards this season02

League averages this season: 2.57 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 39% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Atromitos win1.95
Draw3.73
Kifisia win4.59
Both teams to score2.13

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.27
Over 3.5 goals4.36
Atromitos most1.95
Kifisia most4.59

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.55
Over 8.5 corners1.93
Over 9.5 corners2.53
Over 10.5 corners3.49
Atromitos most1.81
Kifisia most2.94

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.11
Over 3.5 cards1.28
Over 4.5 cards1.62
Over 5.5 cards2.26
Atromitos most3.38
Kifisia most1.87

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.85
Over 8.5 SoT2.36
Over 9.5 SoT3.13
Atromitos most1.98
Kifisia most2.68

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.92
Over 24.5 shots2.46
Over 26.5 shots3.31
Over 28.5 shots4.68
Atromitos most1.63
Kifisia most3.02

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.05
Over 22.5 fouls1.11
Over 24.5 fouls1.21
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 52.1% Over 24.5 40.7% Over 26.5 30.2% Over 28.5 21.4%
Most: Atromitos 61.3% Most: Kifisia 33.1%
Atromitos Over 13.2 42.1% Kifisia Over 13.2 23.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.9% Over 7.5 54.0% Over 8.5 42.4% Over 9.5 31.9%
Most: Atromitos 50.6% Most: Kifisia 37.3%
Atromitos Over 4.2 42.8% Kifisia Over 4.2 33.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 90.1% Over 3.5 77.8% Over 4.5 61.6%
Most: Atromitos 29.6% Most: Kifisia 53.4%
Atromitos Over 1.8 67.1% Kifisia Over 1.8 80.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Atromitos clean sheet 40.4%
Kifisia clean sheet 21.7%
Atromitos win to nil 31.1%
Kifisia win to nil 12.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 51.4% draw 26.8% away 21.8%
double_chance
1X 78.2% 12 73.2% X2 48.6%
dnb
home 70.2% away 29.8%
btts
yes 47.0% no 53.0%
clean_sheet
home 40.6% away 21.7%
win_to_nil
home 31.3% away 12.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.4% home_by_2 15.9% home_by_3plus 11.1%
away_by_1 14.2% away_by_2 5.6% away_by_3plus 2.0%
correct_score
0-0 9.3% 0-1 7.3% 0-2 3.6%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.8% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.7% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.3% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 4.2%
2-3 1.3% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.3% 3-1 4.7% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.1% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.7% under_0.5 9.3% over_1.5 70.6%
under_1.5 29.4% over_2.5 44.0% under_2.5 56.0%
over_3.5 23.0% under_3.5 77.1% over_4.5 10.1%
under_4.5 89.9% over_5.5 3.8% under_5.5 96.2%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 78.3% under_0.5 21.7% over_1.5 45.3%
under_1.5 54.7% over_2.5 20.0% under_2.5 80.0%
team_away
over_0.5 59.4% under_0.5 40.6% over_1.5 23.0%
under_1.5 77.0% over_2.5 6.5% under_2.5 93.5%
most
home 51.4% draw 26.8% away 21.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.1% away_+2.5 88.9% home_-1.5 27.0%
away_+1.5 73.0% home_-0.5 51.4% away_+0.5 48.6%
home_+0.5 78.2% away_-0.5 21.8% home_+1.5 92.4%
away_-1.5 7.6% home_+2.5 98.0% away_-2.5 2.0%
total_exact
exact_0 9.3% exact_1 20.1% exact_2 26.6%
exact_3 21.1% exact_4 12.9% exact_5 6.3%
exact_6 2.6% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 49.4% draw 37.7% away 12.9%
total
over_0.5 71.8% under_0.5 28.2% over_1.5 36.0%
under_1.5 64.0% over_2.5 13.5% under_2.5 86.5%
btts
yes 17.2% no 82.9%
total_exact
exact_0 28.2% exact_1 35.7% exact_2 22.6%
exact_3 9.5% exact_4plus 4.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.6% draw 42.4% away 22.0%
total
over_0.5 68.6% under_0.5 31.4% over_1.5 32.3%
under_1.5 67.7% over_2.5 11.2% under_2.5 88.8%
btts
yes 18.7% no 81.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 42.0% H/D 5.9% H/A 1.5%
D/H 13.4% D/D 16.0% D/A 8.3%
A/H 1.2% A/D 2.9% A/A 8.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 64.5% under_7.5 35.5% over_8.5 51.9%
under_8.5 48.1% over_9.5 39.6% under_9.5 60.4%
over_10.5 28.7% under_10.5 71.3% over_11.5 19.7%
under_11.5 80.3% over_12.5 12.9% under_12.5 87.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.3% under_3.5 31.7% over_4.5 52.5%
under_4.5 47.5% over_5.5 37.6% under_5.5 62.4%
team_away
over_3.5 52.8% under_3.5 47.2% over_4.5 36.0%
under_4.5 64.0% over_5.5 22.6% under_5.5 77.5%
most
home 55.3% draw 10.7% away 34.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.3% away_+3.5 75.7% home_-1.5 44.2%
away_+1.5 55.8% home_-0.5 55.3% away_+0.5 44.7%
home_+0.5 66.0% away_-0.5 34.0% home_+1.5 75.5%
away_-1.5 24.5% home_+3.5 89.3% away_-3.5 10.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 52.1% under_22.5 47.9% over_24.5 40.7%
under_24.5 59.4% over_26.5 30.3% under_26.5 69.8%
over_28.5 21.4% under_28.5 78.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.0% under_10.5 35.0% over_12.5 49.6%
under_12.5 50.4% over_14.5 35.2% under_14.5 64.8%
team_away
over_10.5 45.1% under_10.5 54.9% over_12.5 29.5%
under_12.5 70.5% over_14.5 17.8% under_14.5 82.2%
most
home 61.3% draw 5.6% away 33.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.8% away_+4.5 62.2% home_-2.5 49.5%
away_+2.5 50.5% home_-0.5 61.3% away_+0.5 38.7%
home_+0.5 66.9% away_-0.5 33.1% home_+2.5 76.9%
away_-2.5 23.1% home_+4.5 85.0% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.9% under_6.5 34.1% over_7.5 54.0%
under_7.5 46.0% over_8.5 42.4% under_8.5 57.6%
over_9.5 31.9% under_9.5 68.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.9% under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 42.9%
under_4.5 57.2% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.8%
team_away
over_3.5 49.6% under_3.5 50.4% over_4.5 33.4%
under_4.5 66.6% over_5.5 20.9% under_5.5 79.1%
most
home 50.6% draw 12.2% away 37.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.6% away_+2.5 72.4% home_-0.5 50.6%
away_+0.5 49.4% home_+0.5 62.7% away_-0.5 37.3%
home_+2.5 82.5% away_-2.5 17.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 90.1% under_2.5 9.9% over_3.5 77.8%
under_3.5 22.2% over_4.5 61.6% under_4.5 38.4%
over_5.5 44.2% under_5.5 55.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 67.1% under_1.5 32.9% over_2.5 40.6%
under_2.5 59.4%
team_away
over_1.5 80.5% under_1.5 19.6% over_2.5 58.2%
under_2.5 41.8%
most
home 29.6% draw 17.0% away 53.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.2% away_+1.5 83.8% home_-0.5 29.6%
away_+0.5 70.4% home_+0.5 46.6% away_-0.5 53.4%
home_+1.5 64.0% away_-1.5 36.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 94.8% under_20.5 5.2% over_22.5 89.9%
under_22.5 10.2% over_24.5 82.4% under_24.5 17.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 87.8% under_9.5 12.2% over_11.5 74.6%
under_11.5 25.4% over_13.5 57.5% under_13.5 42.5%
team_away
over_9.5 92.6% under_9.5 7.4% over_11.5 82.9%
under_11.5 17.1% over_13.5 68.6% under_13.5 31.4%
most
home 38.7% draw 6.2% away 55.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.2% away_+3.5 77.8% home_-0.5 38.7%
away_+0.5 61.3% home_+2.5 57.5% away_-2.5 42.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 29.3% no 70.7%
home
yes 5.8% no 94.3%
away
yes 25.0% no 75.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Atromitos predictions · Kifisia predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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