Serie A
Juventus vs 
Atalanta Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 39.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 61.2% for over 2.5 to 11.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 39.7%. Between the two sides, Atalanta are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.3%, with a level count at 22.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 22.6% | 77.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 11.4% | 88.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
38.5%
15.8%
54.4%
28.7%
Card handicap
| Juventus line | Juventus | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.7% | 87.3% |
| -0.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% |
| +0.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| +1.5 | 71.9% | 28.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 34.5% | 65.5% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Juventus vs Atalanta. Slightly more cards are projected for Atalanta for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
39.7%Over 3.5 cards8.9%Any red card38.5%Juventus over 1.5 cards54.4%Atalanta over 1.5 cards47.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Juventus over 1.5 cards sits at 38.5% and Atalanta at 54.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.9% (Juventus 3.0%, Atalanta 6.1%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Juventus vs Atalanta?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 39.7% for Juventus vs Atalanta.
Will there be a red card in Juventus vs Atalanta?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Juventus vs Atalanta?
The model rates Atalanta to pick up more cards at 49.3%, with a level count at 22.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
