Serie A
Juventus vs 
Atalanta Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 12.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Juventus have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, Atalanta 1.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.4% for over 2.5 and 72.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% |
| 0-0 | 8.6% |
| 0-1 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 3-1 | 4.7% |
Score probability grid
| Juventus \ Atalanta | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Juventus goals, columns = Atalanta. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
50.1%Both Teams to Score46.4%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 46.4% for three or more goals and 72.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Juventus favoured at 49.2%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Juventus 1 · 3 draws · Atalanta 1 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Juventus vs Atalanta?
The model's most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Atalanta is 1-1 at 12.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Serie A, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
