Parma vs Genoa prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Parma vs Genoa: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Serie A
Parma

WLLDL

Sun, 20 Sep 202614:00UK28°C · Cloudy
Genoa

LLLLD

Model’s top convictions

69%

Draw or Genoa

65%

Under 2.5 goals

63%

Over 1.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
GenoaWin probability
38.3%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Genoa68.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Under 2.5 goals65.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.54
Over 1.5 goals62.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.60

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Parma and Genoa almost evenly, Genoa marginally on top at 38%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 35% with both teams to score at 43%. 2) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Parma, 2 draws and 3 for Genoa, averaging 1.0 goals a game. 3) Schedule edge: Genoa have had 3 more days of rest than Parma. For shots markets, El Bilal Touré is the obvious watch at 0.8 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Parma arrive W1 D1 L4, Genoa W0 D1 L5. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 28 degrees of heat. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners39.5%@ 2.53
Genoa win38.3%@ 2.61
Over 2.5 goals35.0%@ 2.86
Medium risk

Parma or draw61.7%@ 1.62
Not both teams to score57.3%@ 1.75
Over 8.5 corners49.3%@ 2.03
Random finds

1-1 correct score14.1%@ 7.10
0-0 correct score13.0%@ 7.70
0-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.86

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Parma

31.1%

Draw

30.5%

Genoa

38.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.562.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.535.0%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes42.7%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 10.530.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.3%

Low chance

Most cornersParma55.4%Genoa34.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.538.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.6%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Parma9.0 taken18.2 faced
Genoa11.0 taken15.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Parma (4 games)

3.8 / 5.0

Genoa (4 games)

5.2 / 6.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.562.6%2.535.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.562.6%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

ParmaWLLDL
GenoaLLLLD

Last 5 meetings: Parma 0 · 2 draws · Genoa 3 · 1.0 goals/game.

2026-01-18Parma 0-0 Genoa
2025-10-19Genoa 0-0 Parma
2025-01-12Genoa 1-0 Parma
2024-11-04Parma 0-1 Genoa
2021-03-19Parma 1-2 Genoa

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ParmaGenoa
League position#17 of 20#19 of 20
Record W-D-L0-1-30-1-3
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away0-1-10-0-1
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

El Bilal TouréParma · key player
To score13.1%

@ 7.63

1+ on target34.8%

@ 2.87

2+ shots31.6%

@ 3.16

Shots/90 2.27SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.28
Stephan El ShaarawyGenoa · key player
To score7.6%

@ 13.16

1+ on target31.1%

@ 3.22

2+ shots22.1%

@ 4.52

Shots/90 2.35SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.21
Pontus AlmqvistParma · in form
To score2.3%

@ 43.48

1+ on target18.9%

@ 5.29

2+ shots14.8%

@ 6.76

Shots/90 1.74SoT/90 0.54Goals/90 0.06
Lorenzo ColomboGenoa · in form
To score14.6%

@ 6.85

1+ on target46.0%

@ 2.17

2+ shots48.3%

@ 2.07

Shots/90 2.37SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.23
Giovanni FabbianParma · in form
To score6.8%

@ 14.71

1+ on target14.5%

@ 6.90

2+ shots14.5%

@ 6.90

Shots/90 1.71SoT/90 0.4Goals/90 0.18
VitinhaGenoa · in form
To score10.6%

@ 9.43

1+ on target34.7%

@ 2.88

2+ shots47.7%

@ 2.10

Shots/90 2.45SoT/90 0.65Goals/90 0.17

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Parma win3.12
Draw3.20
Genoa win2.72
Both teams to score2.34

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.15
Over 1.5 goals1.60
Over 2.5 goals2.86
Over 3.5 goals6.19
Parma most3.12
Genoa most2.72

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.62
Over 8.5 corners1.98
Over 9.5 corners2.53
Over 10.5 corners3.35
Parma most1.80
Genoa most2.94

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.45
Over 3.5 cards2.07
Over 4.5 cards3.33
Over 5.5 cards6.01
Parma most2.64
Genoa most2.46

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.61
Over 7.5 SoT2.00
Over 8.5 SoT2.60
Over 9.5 SoT3.53
Parma most2.12
Genoa most2.48

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.62
Over 24.5 shots2.01
Over 26.5 shots2.63
Over 28.5 shots3.62
Parma most1.70
Genoa most2.83

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.34
Over 22.5 fouls1.60
Over 24.5 fouls2.02
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 61.7% Over 24.5 49.7% Over 26.5 38.1% Over 28.5 27.6%
Most: Parma 58.9% Most: Genoa 35.3%
Parma Over 13.2 46.3% Genoa Over 13.2 29.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 62.1% Over 7.5 49.9% Over 8.5 38.4% Over 9.5 28.3%
Most: Parma 47.1% Most: Genoa 40.4%
Parma Over 4.2 37.7% Genoa Over 4.2 33.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.9% Over 3.5 48.4% Over 4.5 30.0%
Most: Parma 37.9% Most: Genoa 40.7%
Parma Over 1.8 52.0% Genoa Over 1.8 54.0%

Parma: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
El Bilal Touré 2.27 0.85 0.28 34.8% 31.6% 13.1%
Pontus Almqvist 1.74 0.54 0.06 18.9% 14.8% 2.3%
Giovanni Fabbian 1.71 0.4 0.18 14.5% 14.5% 6.8%
Adrián Bernabé 1.68 0.39 0.09 27.4% 40.2% 7.1%
Vincent Sierro 1.19 0.35 0.19 27.7% 30.3% 16.2%

Genoa: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Stephan El Shaarawy 2.35 0.99 0.21 31.1% 22.1% 7.6%
Lorenzo Colombo 2.37 0.9 0.23 46.0% 48.3% 14.6%
Vitinha 2.45 0.65 0.17 34.7% 47.7% 10.6%
Junior Messias 2.36 0.61 0.2 21.2% 23.5% 7.5%
Tommaso Baldanzi 2.29 0.61 0.1 21.3% 22.7% 3.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Parma clean sheet 33.6%
Genoa clean sheet 36.7%
Parma win to nil 20.6%
Genoa win to nil 23.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 32.0% draw 31.3% away 36.7%
double_chance
1X 63.3% 12 68.8% X2 68.0%
dnb
home 46.6% away 53.4%
btts
yes 42.7% no 57.3%
clean_sheet
home 33.6% away 36.7%
win_to_nil
home 20.6% away 23.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.8% home_by_2 8.8% home_by_3plus 3.5%
away_by_1 21.6% away_by_2 10.5% away_by_3plus 4.7%
correct_score
0-0 13.0% 0-1 12.7% 0-2 7.3%
0-3 2.7% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 11.7% 1-1 14.1% 1-2 7.4%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 6.2% 2-1 6.7% 2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.1% 3-1 2.3% 3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.4% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.6% 4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 14.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 87.0% under_0.5 13.0% over_1.5 62.6%
under_1.5 37.4% over_2.5 35.0% under_2.5 65.0%
over_3.5 16.2% under_3.5 83.9% over_4.5 6.2%
under_4.5 93.8% over_5.5 2.1% under_5.5 97.9%
odd_even
odd 47.9% even 52.1%
team_home
over_0.5 63.3% under_0.5 36.7% over_1.5 26.5%
under_1.5 73.5% over_2.5 8.1% under_2.5 91.9%
team_away
over_0.5 66.4% under_0.5 33.6% over_1.5 29.9%
under_1.5 70.1% over_2.5 10.0% under_2.5 90.0%
most
home 32.0% draw 31.3% away 36.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.5% away_+2.5 96.5% home_-1.5 12.3%
away_+1.5 87.7% home_-0.5 32.0% away_+0.5 68.0%
home_+0.5 63.3% away_-0.5 36.7% home_+1.5 84.8%
away_-1.5 15.2% home_+2.5 95.3% away_-2.5 4.7%
total_exact
exact_0 13.0% exact_1 24.4% exact_2 27.6%
exact_3 18.9% exact_4 9.9% exact_5 4.2%
exact_6 1.5% exact_7plus 0.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.1% draw 55.2% away 22.7%
total
over_0.5 51.3% under_0.5 48.7% over_1.5 16.3%
under_1.5 83.7% over_2.5 3.7% under_2.5 96.3%
btts
yes 9.2% no 90.9%
total_exact
exact_0 48.7% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 12.6%
exact_3 3.0% exact_4plus 0.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.3% draw 40.9% away 30.9%
total
over_0.5 71.5% under_0.5 28.5% over_1.5 35.7%
under_1.5 64.3% over_2.5 13.3% under_2.5 86.7%
btts
yes 21.7% no 78.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 16.1% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.6%
D/H 15.6% D/D 22.6% D/A 17.0%
A/H 1.4% A/D 4.2% A/A 17.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 61.8% under_7.5 38.2% over_8.5 50.4%
under_8.5 49.6% over_9.5 39.6% under_9.5 60.4%
over_10.5 29.9% under_10.5 70.1% over_11.5 21.8%
under_11.5 78.2% over_12.5 15.4% under_12.5 84.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.1% under_3.5 33.9% over_4.5 51.4%
under_4.5 48.6% over_5.5 37.9% under_5.5 62.1%
team_away
over_3.5 50.7% under_3.5 49.3% over_4.5 35.1%
under_4.5 64.9% over_5.5 22.8% under_5.5 77.2%
most
home 55.6% draw 10.4% away 34.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.8% away_+3.5 74.2% home_-1.5 44.9%
away_+1.5 55.1% home_-0.5 55.6% away_+0.5 44.4%
home_+0.5 65.9% away_-0.5 34.1% home_+1.5 75.2%
away_-1.5 24.8% home_+3.5 88.7% away_-3.5 11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.7% under_22.5 38.3% over_24.5 49.7%
under_24.5 50.3% over_26.5 38.1% under_26.5 61.9%
over_28.5 27.6% under_28.5 72.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.3% under_10.5 29.7% over_12.5 54.3%
under_12.5 45.7% over_14.5 38.7% under_14.5 61.3%
team_away
over_10.5 54.6% under_10.5 45.4% over_12.5 37.4%
under_12.5 62.6% over_14.5 23.3% under_14.5 76.8%
most
home 58.9% draw 5.9% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.9% away_+4.5 65.1% home_-2.5 46.7%
away_+2.5 53.3% home_-0.5 58.9% away_+0.5 41.2%
home_+0.5 64.7% away_-0.5 35.3% home_+2.5 75.3%
away_-2.5 24.7% home_+4.5 83.9% away_-4.5 16.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 62.1% under_6.5 37.9% over_7.5 49.9%
under_7.5 50.1% over_8.5 38.4% under_8.5 61.6%
over_9.5 28.3% under_9.5 71.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 53.8% under_3.5 46.2% over_4.5 37.7%
under_4.5 62.3% over_5.5 24.7% under_5.5 75.3%
team_away
over_3.5 49.1% under_3.5 50.9% over_4.5 33.0%
under_4.5 67.0% over_5.5 20.7% under_5.5 79.3%
most
home 47.1% draw 12.6% away 40.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.3% away_+2.5 75.7% home_-0.5 47.1%
away_+0.5 52.9% home_+0.5 59.6% away_-0.5 40.4%
home_+2.5 80.7% away_-2.5 19.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.9% under_2.5 31.1% over_3.5 48.4%
under_3.5 51.6% over_4.5 30.0% under_4.5 70.0%
over_5.5 16.6% under_5.5 83.4%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 52.0% under_1.5 48.0% over_2.5 26.5%
under_2.5 73.5%
team_away
over_1.5 54.1% under_1.5 46.0% over_2.5 28.3%
under_2.5 71.7%
most
home 37.9% draw 21.4% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.2% away_+1.5 79.8% home_-0.5 37.9%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7%
home_+1.5 77.7% away_-1.5 22.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 74.8% under_20.5 25.2% over_22.5 62.6%
under_22.5 37.4% over_24.5 49.4% under_24.5 50.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 70.4% under_9.5 29.6% over_11.5 51.6%
under_11.5 48.4% over_13.5 33.6% under_13.5 66.4%
team_away
over_9.5 76.0% under_9.5 24.0% over_11.5 58.5%
under_11.5 41.5% over_13.5 40.5% under_13.5 59.5%
most
home 41.7% draw 6.6% away 51.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.9% away_+3.5 76.1% home_-0.5 41.7%
away_+0.5 58.3% home_+2.5 61.5% away_-2.5 38.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.3% no 76.7%
home
yes 10.7% no 89.3%
away
yes 14.1% no 85.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Parma predictions · Genoa predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Serie AParmaGenoaTrack record