AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
InterInterWWDWW
Full time2-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1011:30UK
FiorentinaFiorentinaLWDLL

Inter 2-1 Fiorentina cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.5%

Result

Inter2-1Fiorentina
3 yellow cardsInter 0, Fiorentina 3
0 red cardsInter 0, Fiorentina 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 51.5% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 90.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Maurizio Mariani

Recorded match referee.

Maurizio Mariani in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 18 3
Goals 2.78 Not available
Yellow cards 3.89 Not available
Red cards 0.06 Not available
Corners 7.9 Not available
Fouls 24.5 Not available
Both teams scored 67% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 50% Not available
Home wins 50% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Inter vs Fiorentina 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 7 27
20 Sep 2026 Parma vs Genoa 2-1 3 Yes 6 0 7 31
6 Sep 2026 Juventus vs Milan 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 8 21
26 Apr 2026 Torino vs Inter 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 10 18
19 Apr 2026 Juventus vs Bologna 2-0 2 No 1 0 7 15
20 Mar 2026 Cagliari vs Napoli 0-1 1 No 4 0 9 28
14 Mar 2026 Udinese vs Juventus 0-1 1 No 4 0 8 26
23 Feb 2026 Fiorentina vs Pisa 1-0 1 No 6 0 7 27
18 Feb 2026 Milan vs Como 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 8 23
25 Jan 2026 Juventus vs Napoli 3-0 3 No 3 0 4 32

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Inter vs Fiorentina. The model leans toward Fiorentina for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.5% 28.5%
3.5 cards 51.5% 48.5%
4.5 cards 32.9% 67.1%
5.5 cards 18.8% 81.2%

Who picks up more cards

Inter
35.9%
Level
20.8%
Fiorentina
43.3%

Team cards lines

Inter

Over 1.5
52.5%
Over 2.5
26.9%

Fiorentina

Over 1.5
57.9%
Over 2.5
32.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Inter's; Fiorentina gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Inter line Inter Fiorentina
-1.5 19.0% 81.0%
-0.5 35.9% 64.1%
+0.5 56.7% 43.3%
+1.5 75.3% 24.7%

Red card

Any red card9.2%
Inter red card2.1%
Fiorentina red card7.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 69.7% 30.3%
22.5 fouls 57.0% 43.1%
24.5 fouls 43.9% 56.1%
InterInter

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Inter at home and Fiorentina away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

FiorentinaFiorentina
Statistic
Inter
Fiorentina
Cards per game at this venue
1.3
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.7
·

Yellow cards per game
1.6
·

Matches with more cards than the opponent
0.0%
·

Matches with card data
5
1
Red cards this season
0
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.5% for over 2.5 to 18.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.5%. Head to head on cards, Fiorentina are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 20.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Inter over 1.5 cards sits at 52.5% and Fiorentina at 57.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.2% (Inter 2.1%, Fiorentina 7.2%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

51.5%Over 3.5 cards
9.2%Any red card
43.3%Most cards: Fiorentina
52.5%Inter over 1.5 cards
57.9%Fiorentina over 1.5 cards
57.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianFiorentina are the pick to collect more cards at 43.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
InterInter

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

FiorentinaFiorentina
Statistic
Inter
Fiorentina
cards per game
1.6
·

fouls per game
6.6
11.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.5% for Inter vs Fiorentina.
Will there be a red card in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fiorentina to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie AInter fixtures and statsFiorentina fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.