AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
Holstein KielHolstein KielDLDLD
Full time3-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1012:30UK
DresdenDresdenLDLDW

Holstein Kiel 3-0 Dresden corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined61.2%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined38.8%

Result

Holstein Kiel3-0Dresden
15 cornersHolstein Kiel 5, Dresden 10
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 61.2% and it landed (15 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 9.5 corners61.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Holstein Kiel.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 81.9% 18.1%
8.5 corners 72.3% 27.7%
9.5 corners 61.2% 38.8%
10.5 corners 49.6% 50.4%
11.5 corners 38.4% 61.6%
12.5 corners 28.4% 71.6%

Who wins the corner count

Holstein Kiel
49.5%
Level
10.5%
Dresden
40.0%

Team corners lines

Holstein Kiel

Over 3.5
77.1%
Over 4.5
62.6%
Over 5.5
47.2%

Dresden

Over 3.5
71.7%
Over 4.5
55.8%
Over 5.5
40.1%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Holstein Kiel's; Dresden gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Holstein Kiel line Holstein Kiel Dresden
-1.5 39.0% 61.0%
-0.5 49.5% 50.5%
+0.5 60.0% 40.0%
+1.5 69.8% 30.2%
Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Holstein Kiel at home and Dresden away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

DresdenDresden
Statistic
Holstein Kiel
Dresden
Corners won per game at this venue
8.3
6.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.7
4.3

Matches with more corners than the opponent
50.0%
80.0%

Matches with corner data
6
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 1,506 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 61.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 81.9% for over 7.5 to 28.4% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. Head to head on corners, Holstein Kiel are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.5%, with a level count at 10.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Holstein Kiel over 4.5 corners sits at 62.6% and Dresden at 55.8%. This season Holstein Kiel have averaged 6.7 corners won a game and Dresden 6.8.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

61.2%Over 9.5 corners
49.5%Most corners: Holstein Kiel
62.6%Holstein Kiel over 4.5 corners
55.8%Dresden over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 61.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderHolstein Kiel are the pick to win the corner count at 49.5%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 49.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 10.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

DresdenDresden
Statistic
Holstein Kiel
Dresden
corners won per game
6.7
6.8

corners conceded per game
5.2
4.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Holstein Kiel vs Dresden?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 61.2% for Holstein Kiel vs Dresden.
Which team will win the corner count in Holstein Kiel vs Dresden?
Before kickoff, the model rated Holstein Kiel to win the corner count at 49.5%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Holstein Kiel and Dresden average this season?
Holstein Kiel have won 6.7 corners a game this season and Dresden 6.8.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

2. BundesligaHolstein Kiel fixtures and statsDresden fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.