AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
Holstein KielHolstein KielDLDLD
Full time3-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1012:30UK
DresdenDresdenLDLDW

Holstein Kiel 3-0 Dresden cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined69.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined30.5%

Result

Holstein Kiel3-0Dresden
6 yellow cardsHolstein Kiel 5, Dresden 1
0 red cardsHolstein Kiel 0, Dresden 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 69.5% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 79.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards69.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Timo Gerach

Recorded match referee.

Timo Gerach in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 18 3
Goals 3.22 Not available
Yellow cards 4.39 Not available
Red cards 0.22 Not available
Corners 9.5 Not available
Fouls 21.5 Not available
Both teams scored 72% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 83% Not available
Home wins 39% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Holstein Kiel vs Dresden 3-0 3 No 6 0 15 16
11 Sep 2026 Union Berlin vs Schalke 04Bundesliga 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 9 21
30 Aug 2026 Darmstadt vs Hannover 0-1 1 No 3 1 13 20
17 May 2026 Elversberg vs Preußen Münster 3-0 3 No 2 0 8 25
3 May 2026 St Pauli vs MainzBundesliga 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 14 18
11 Apr 2026 Wolfsburg vs Ein FrankfurtBundesliga 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 14 17
4 Apr 2026 Bielefeld vs Darmstadt 2-1 3 Yes 7 0 12 26
8 Mar 2026 Union Berlin vs Werder BremenBundesliga 1-4 5 Yes 4 1 4 18
21 Feb 2026 Schalke 04 vs Magdeburg 5-3 8 Yes 2 0 6 27
7 Feb 2026 Wolfsburg vs DortmundBundesliga 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 12 23

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Holstein Kiel vs Dresden. It tips Dresden for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 85.1% 14.9%
3.5 cards 69.5% 30.5%
4.5 cards 51.1% 48.9%
5.5 cards 33.7% 66.3%

Who picks up more cards

Holstein Kiel
40.3%
Level
18.9%
Dresden
40.8%

Team cards lines

Holstein Kiel

Over 1.5
68.2%
Over 2.5
41.9%

Dresden

Over 1.5
68.5%
Over 2.5
42.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Holstein Kiel's; Dresden gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Holstein Kiel line Holstein Kiel Dresden
-1.5 23.6% 76.4%
-0.5 40.3% 59.7%
+0.5 59.2% 40.8%
+1.5 76.0% 24.0%

Red card

Any red card21.0%
Holstein Kiel red card15.0%
Dresden red card7.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 75.0% 25.0%
22.5 fouls 61.9% 38.1%
24.5 fouls 47.8% 52.2%
Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Holstein Kiel at home and Dresden away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

DresdenDresden
Statistic
Holstein Kiel
Dresden
Yellow cards per game
3.3
1.8

First-half yellow cards per game
1.6
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.0
·

Matches with card data
3
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 69.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 85.1% for over 2.5 to 33.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. Head to head on cards, Dresden are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 18.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Holstein Kiel over 1.5 cards sits at 68.2% and Dresden at 68.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.0% (Holstein Kiel 15.0%, Dresden 7.0%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

69.5%Over 3.5 cards
21.0%Any red card
40.8%Most cards: Dresden
68.2%Holstein Kiel over 1.5 cards
68.5%Dresden over 1.5 cards
61.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 69.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.0%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianDresden are the pick to collect more cards at 40.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 51.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

DresdenDresden
Statistic
Holstein Kiel
Dresden
fouls per game
14.5
10.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Holstein Kiel vs Dresden?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 69.5% for Holstein Kiel vs Dresden.
Will there be a red card in Holstein Kiel vs Dresden?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Holstein Kiel vs Dresden?
Before kickoff, the model rated Dresden to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaHolstein Kiel fixtures and statsDresden fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.