AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
KaiserslauternKaiserslauternLWDWW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1012:00UK
HerthaHerthaWWWDW

Kaiserslautern vs Hertha cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined36.1%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards63.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Kaiserslautern vs Hertha. Slightly more cards are projected for Hertha for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.4% 18.6%
3.5 cards 63.9% 36.1%
4.5 cards 44.8% 55.3%
5.5 cards 27.9% 72.1%

Who picks up more cards

Kaiserslautern
35.6%
Level
19.6%
Hertha
44.8%

Team cards lines

Kaiserslautern

Over 1.5
61.3%
Over 2.5
34.3%

Hertha

Over 1.5
67.4%
Over 2.5
40.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Kaiserslautern's; Hertha gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Kaiserslautern line Kaiserslautern Hertha
-1.5 19.4% 80.6%
-0.5 35.6% 64.4%
+0.5 55.2% 44.8%
+1.5 73.3% 26.7%

Red card

Any red card15.6%
Kaiserslautern red card3.3%
Hertha red card12.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.1% 26.9%
22.5 fouls 59.7% 40.4%
24.5 fouls 45.5% 54.5%
KaiserslauternKaiserslautern

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Kaiserslautern at home and Hertha away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

HerthaHertha
Statistic
Kaiserslautern
Hertha
Yellow cards per game
2.5
2.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.1
1.7

Matches with card data
3
5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 63.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 81.4% for over 2.5 to 27.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. Head to head on cards, Hertha are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 19.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Kaiserslautern over 1.5 cards sits at 61.3% and Hertha at 67.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.6% (Kaiserslautern 3.3%, Hertha 12.7%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

63.9%Over 3.5 cards
15.6%Any red card
44.8%Most cards: Hertha
61.3%Kaiserslautern over 1.5 cards
67.4%Hertha over 1.5 cards
59.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianHertha are the pick to collect more cards at 44.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 44.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
KaiserslauternKaiserslautern

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

HerthaHertha
Statistic
Kaiserslautern
Hertha
fouls per game
11.7
12.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Kaiserslautern vs Hertha?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.9% for Kaiserslautern vs Hertha.
Will there be a red card in Kaiserslautern vs Hertha?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Kaiserslautern vs Hertha?
The model rates Hertha to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaKaiserslautern fixtures and statsHertha fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.