Primeira Liga
Guimaraes vs 
Nacional Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 75.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 88.9% for over 2.5 to 41.5% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.5%. Between the two sides, Nacional are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 17.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 41.5% | 58.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
68.3%
42.1%
77.1%
53.4%
Card handicap
| Guimaraes line | Guimaraes | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| -0.5 | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| +0.5 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| +1.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 87.3% | 12.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 67.6% | 32.4% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Guimaraes vs Nacional. It tips Nacional for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
75.9%Over 3.5 cards18.5%Any red card68.3%Guimaraes over 1.5 cards77.1%Nacional over 1.5 cards78.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Guimaraes over 1.5 cards sits at 68.3% and Nacional at 77.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.5% (Guimaraes 8.8%, Nacional 10.7%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 75.9% for Guimaraes vs Nacional.
Will there be a red card in Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Before kickoff, the model rated Nacional to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 17.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.