Primeira Liga
Guimaraes vs 
Nacional Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 46.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 58.6% for over 22.5 to 25.1% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.6%. Head to head on shots, Guimaraes are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.7%, with a level count at 5.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 35.2% | 64.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.1% | 74.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.4%
53.4%
37.9%
50.9%
33.9%
20.5%
Shot handicap
| Guimaraes line | Guimaraes | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| -2.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| -0.5 | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| +0.5 | 66.5% | 33.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.1% | 66.9% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Guimaraes.
In-depth analysis
46.6%Over 24.5 shots53.4%Guimaraes over 12.5 shots33.9%Nacional over 12.5 shots57.6%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Guimaraes over 12.5 shots sits at 53.4% and Nacional at 33.9%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 46.6% for Guimaraes vs Nacional.
Which team will have more shots in Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Before kickoff, the model rated Guimaraes to take more shots at 60.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.