Primeira Liga
Guimaraes vs 
Nacional Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Guimaraes or Nacional (72.1%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 72.1%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Guimaraes are favoured at 40.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Guimaraes by 1 | 21.3% |
| Guimaraes by 2 | 12.1% |
| Guimaraes by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Nacional by 1 | 18.4% |
| Nacional by 2 | 9.1% |
| Nacional by 3+ | 4.3% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
Goal handicap
| Guimaraes line | Guimaraes | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.1% | 80.9% |
| -0.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| +0.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| +1.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
Double chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Guimaraes or Nacional on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
52.3%Both Teams to Score
46.9%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Guimaraes are favoured at 40.4%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guimaraes 2 · 1 draws · Nacional 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Home or Away was the highest-probability cover at 72.1%; it landed, final score 1-0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.