Primeira Liga
Guimaraes vs 
Nacional Correct Score
Result
Final score 1-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 10.1%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.2% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Guimaraes have averaged 0.6 scored and 2.4 conceded, Nacional 1.4 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.9% for over 2.5 and 72.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
| 0-1 | 8.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 0-0 | 8.5% |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
| 0-2 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Guimaraes \ Nacional | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Guimaraes goals, columns = Nacional. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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5+
In-depth analysis
52.3%Both Teams to Score46.9%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 46.9% for three or more goals and 72.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Guimaraes favoured at 40.4%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guimaraes 2 · 1 draws · Nacional 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Guimaraes vs Nacional finished 1-0. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.2%; it gave the actual 1-0 a 10.1% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.