AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
GrimsbyGrimsbyDDWWL
Full time1-2Sat, 3 Oct 20263/1015:00UK
ShrewsburyShrewsburyLLWDD

Grimsby 1-2 Shrewsbury cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.6%

Result

Grimsby1-2Shrewsbury
7 yellow cardsGrimsby 1, Shrewsbury 6
0 red cardsGrimsby 0, Shrewsbury 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.4% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 89.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Matthew Corlett

Recorded match referee.

Matthew Corlett in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 45 5
Goals 2.62 3.40
Yellow cards 4.33 4.80
Red cards 0.18 0.00
Corners 10.4 10.6
Fouls 21.5 24.6
Both teams scored 64% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 58% 80%
Home wins 44% 60%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Blackburn vs WrexhamChampionship 2-0 2 No 5 0 16 22
14 Oct 2026 QPR vs DerbyChampionship 4-1 5 Yes 5 0 4 20
3 Oct 2026 Grimsby vs Shrewsbury 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 14 38
12 Sep 2026 Oldham vs Chesterfield 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 5 26
1 Sep 2026 Swindon vs Port Vale 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 14 17
10 May 2026 Grimsby vs Salford 1-2 3 Yes 4 Not available 8 21
2 Apr 2026 Cambridge vs Swindon 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 16 14
14 Mar 2026 Notts County vs Chesterfield 2-3 5 Yes 7 1 7 25
28 Feb 2026 Oxford vs West BromChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 11 26
10 Feb 2026 Shrewsbury vs Barrow 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 9 17

Matthew Corlett referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Grimsby vs Shrewsbury. The model leans toward Shrewsbury for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.4% 25.6%
3.5 cards 54.4% 45.6%
4.5 cards 34.9% 65.1%
5.5 cards 19.7% 80.3%

Who picks up more cards

Grimsby
21.5%
Level
18.8%
Shrewsbury
59.7%

Team cards lines

Grimsby

Over 1.5
42.1%
Over 2.5
17.6%

Shrewsbury

Over 1.5
70.2%
Over 2.5
44.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Grimsby's; Shrewsbury gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Grimsby line Grimsby Shrewsbury
-1.5 9.3% 90.8%
-0.5 21.5% 78.5%
+0.5 40.3% 59.7%
+1.5 61.2% 38.8%

Red card

Any red card10.1%
Grimsby red card1.6%
Shrewsbury red card8.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 69.9% 30.1%
22.5 fouls 55.0% 45.0%
24.5 fouls 39.8% 60.2%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 54.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.4% for over 2.5 to 19.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. On the card count, Shrewsbury are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 59.7%, with a level count at 18.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Grimsby over 1.5 cards sits at 42.1% and Shrewsbury at 70.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.1% (Grimsby 1.6%, Shrewsbury 8.6%). This season Grimsby have averaged 1.5 cards a game and Shrewsbury 2.6.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

54.4%Over 3.5 cards
10.1%Any red card
59.7%Most cards: Shrewsbury
42.1%Grimsby over 1.5 cards
70.2%Shrewsbury over 1.5 cards
55.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianShrewsbury are the pick to collect more cards at 59.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
GrimsbyGrimsby

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ShrewsburyShrewsbury
Statistic
Grimsby
Shrewsbury
cards per game
1.5
2.6

fouls per game
12.5
13.8

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Grimsby vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.4% for Grimsby vs Shrewsbury.
Will there be a red card in Grimsby vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Grimsby vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated Shrewsbury to pick up more cards at 59.7%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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League TwoGrimsby fixtures and statsShrewsbury fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.