AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
GillinghamGillinghamLDWLD
Full time1-4Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
GrimsbyGrimsbyLLLLD

Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.2%

Result

Gillingham1-4Grimsby
7 yellow cardsGillingham 3, Grimsby 4
0 red cardsGillingham 0, Grimsby 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.8% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 85.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Sam Mulhall

Recorded match referee.

Sam Mulhall in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 13 1
Goals 2.08 Not available
Yellow cards 4.38 Not available
Red cards 0.31 Not available
Corners 8.8 Not available
Fouls 21.2 Not available
Both teams scored 39% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 31% Not available
Home wins 39% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Gillingham vs Grimsby 1-4 5 Yes 7 0 10 27
16 Apr 2026 Bromley vs Cambridge 0-0 0 No 3 0 10 23
18 Mar 2026 Milton Keynes Dons vs Colchester 1-0 1 No 6 0 7 23
7 Mar 2026 Tranmere vs Oldham 1-3 4 Yes 3 0 5 26
14 Feb 2026 Barnet vs Cheltenham 0-0 0 No 5 1 9 23
9 Dec 2025 Shrewsbury vs Grimsby 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 8 26
4 Oct 2025 Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town 2-0 2 No 5 0 6 18
13 Sep 2025 Gillingham vs Notts County 1-0 1 No 5 0 6 18
30 Aug 2025 Milton Keynes Dons vs Walsall 0-1 1 No 3 0 8 22
16 Aug 2025 Chesterfield vs Bristol Rvs 3-1 4 Yes 6 1 9 20

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gillingham vs Grimsby. Slightly more cards are projected for Gillingham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.6% 24.4%
3.5 cards 55.8% 44.2%
4.5 cards 36.3% 63.7%
5.5 cards 20.8% 79.2%

Who picks up more cards

Gillingham
46.0%
Level
20.6%
Grimsby
33.4%

Team cards lines

Gillingham

Over 1.5
63.1%
Over 2.5
36.2%

Grimsby

Over 1.5
54.2%
Over 2.5
27.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Gillingham's; Grimsby gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Gillingham line Gillingham Grimsby
-1.5 26.8% 73.3%
-0.5 46.0% 54.0%
+0.5 66.6% 33.4%
+1.5 82.9% 17.1%

Red card

Any red card14.6%
Gillingham red card10.1%
Grimsby red card5.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 71.9% 28.1%
22.5 fouls 57.3% 42.7%
24.5 fouls 42.1% 57.9%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.6% for over 2.5 to 20.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. Head to head on cards, Gillingham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 20.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Gillingham over 1.5 cards sits at 63.1% and Grimsby at 54.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.6% (Gillingham 10.1%, Grimsby 5.0%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

55.8%Over 3.5 cards
14.6%Any red card
46.0%Most cards: Gillingham
63.1%Gillingham over 1.5 cards
54.2%Grimsby over 1.5 cards
57.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianGillingham are the pick to collect more cards at 46.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.8% for Gillingham vs Grimsby.
Will there be a red card in Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gillingham to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoGillingham fixtures and statsGrimsby fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.