Serie A
Genoa vs 
Napoli Shots
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 40.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 52.3% for over 22.5 to 20.2% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. On the shot count, Genoa are the model’s pick to have more shots at 53.6%, with a level count at 6.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.2% | 79.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
60.9%
43.9%
29.1%
51.6%
34.6%
21.1%
Shot handicap
| Genoa line | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| -2.5 | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| -0.5 | 53.6% | 46.5% |
| +0.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 25.7% | 74.3% |
This season (2025/26)
11.5Genoa shots per game13.3Napoli shots per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Genoa.
In-depth analysis
40.2%Over 24.5 shots43.9%Genoa over 12.5 shots34.6%Napoli over 12.5 shots46.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Genoa over 12.5 shots sits at 43.9% and Napoli at 34.6%. This season Genoa have averaged 11.5 shots a game and Napoli 13.3.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Genoa vs Napoli?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 40.2% for Genoa vs Napoli.
Which team will have more shots in Genoa vs Napoli?
Before kickoff, the model rated Genoa to take more shots at 53.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.