Serie A
Genoa vs 
Napoli Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 60.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Genoa have averaged 0.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Napoli 2.0 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.9% for over 2.5 and 67.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Genoa have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Napoli in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Goal line guide
| Line | Over |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 67.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 39.9% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 39.9% for three or more goals and 67.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Napoli favoured at 48.0%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Napoli to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genoa 0 · 2 draws · Napoli 3 · 3.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genoa vs Napoli?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 39.9% for Genoa vs Napoli.
How often have Genoa gone over 2.5 recently?
Genoa have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Napoli in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,211 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | corners_under_10.5 |
More Serie A, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.