Como vs Parma: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Serie A

Como

WWDWW

Mon, 14 Sep 202617:30UK

Parma

LWLLD

Model’s top convictions

89%

Como or draw

70%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Not both teams to score

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

ComoWin probability

65.5%

Top 3 convictions

Como or draw89.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.12

Over 1.5 goals70.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.42

teams to score58.7%Good chancePays @ 1.70

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Como at 65% against Parma, Serie A, 14 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Como higher (79%) than our model does. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 41%. 3) The run in: Como arrive W5 D1 L0, Parma W1 D1 L4. Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 2 wins for Como, 2 draws and 0 for Parma, averaging 1.0 goals a game. Moise Kean drives the home shot volume, 1.5 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals43.7%@ 2.29

Over 9.5 corners40.4%@ 2.48

Draw or Parma34.5%@ 2.90

Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals56.3%@ 1.78

Over 8.5 corners50.1%@ 2.00

Random finds

1-0 correct score14.9%@ 6.71

2-0 correct score13.5%@ 7.42

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.09

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Como

65.5%-13.4%

Draw

23.6%+7.5%

Parma

10.9%+6.0%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes41.3%

Toss-up

Corners markets

Over 8.550.1%

Good chance

Over 9.540.4%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.2%

Low chance

Most cornersComo61.6%Parma28.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.9%

Good chance

Over 24.546.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.9%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Como18.3 taken10.0 faced

Parma8.8 taken15.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Como (3 games)

11.0 / 9.3

Parma (3 games)

3.7 / 4.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.3%2.543.7%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.570.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Form & head-to-head

ComoWWDWW

ParmaLWLLD

Last 4 meetings: Como 2 · 2 draws · Parma 0 · 1.0 goals/game.

2026-05-17Como 1-0 Parma

2025-10-25Parma 0-0 Como

2025-05-03Parma 0-1 Como

2024-10-19Como 1-1 Parma

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Como

Parma

League position#4 of 20#16 of 20

Record W-D-L2-1-00-1-2

Current streakW2D1

Record, home vs away·0-0-1

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.73 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Moise KeanComo · key player

To score36.4%

@ 2.75

1+ on target73.1%

@ 1.37

2+ shots85.6%

@ 1.17

Shots/90 3.86SoT/90 1.48Goals/90 0.51

El Bilal TouréParma · key player

To score13.5%

@ 7.41

1+ on target29.9%

@ 3.34

2+ shots29.1%

@ 3.44

Shots/90 2.29SoT/90 0.76Goals/90 0.31

Nico PazComo · in form

To score23.2%

@ 4.31

1+ on target70.7%

@ 1.41

2+ shots84.9%

@ 1.18

Shots/90 3.7SoT/90 1.35Goals/90 0.29

Pontus AlmqvistParma · in form

To score2.3%

@ 43.48

1+ on target19.2%

@ 5.21

2+ shots15.3%

@ 6.54

Shots/90 1.75SoT/90 0.54Goals/90 0.06

Tasos DouvikasComo · in form

To score25.8%

@ 3.88

1+ on target49.7%

@ 2.01

2+ shots43.7%

@ 2.29

Shots/90 2.59SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.52

Giovanni FabbianParma · in form

To score6.9%

@ 14.49

1+ on target16.0%

@ 6.25

2+ shots15.7%

@ 6.37

Shots/90 1.77SoT/90 0.44Goals/90 0.18

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Como win1.221.53

Draw5.504.24

Parma win15.009.17

Over 2.5 goals1.672.29

Under 2.5 goals2.201.78

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Como win1.60

Draw4.18

Parma win7.39

Both teams to score2.42

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10

Over 1.5 goals1.42

Over 2.5 goals2.29

Over 3.5 goals4.40

Como most1.60

Parma most7.39

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.60

Over 8.5 corners1.95

Over 9.5 corners2.46

Over 10.5 corners3.24

Como most1.62

Parma most3.51

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39

Over 3.5 cards1.93

Over 4.5 cards3.04

Over 5.5 cards5.35

Como most3.04

Parma most2.15

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.55

Over 7.5 SoT1.89

Over 8.5 SoT2.40

Over 9.5 SoT3.17

Como most1.58

Parma most3.88

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.70

Over 24.5 shots2.14

Over 26.5 shots2.85

Over 28.5 shots4.02

Como most1.41

Parma most4.15

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33

Over 22.5 fouls1.59

Over 24.5 fouls2.02

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	58.9%	Over 24.5	46.7%	Over 26.5	35.1%	Over 28.5	24.9%
Most: Como	70.8%	Most: Parma	24.1%
Como Over 13.2	52.8%	Parma Over 13.2	19.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	64.7%	Over 7.5	53.0%	Over 8.5	41.7%	Over 9.5	31.5%
Most: Como	63.3%	Most: Parma	25.8%
Como Over 4.2	50.7%	Parma Over 4.2	23.7%

Cards

Over 2.5	71.8%	Over 3.5	51.7%	Over 4.5	32.9%
Most: Como	32.8%	Most: Parma	46.5%
Como Over 1.8	50.4%	Parma Over 1.8	60.2%

Como: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Moise Kean	3.86	1.48	0.51	73.1%	85.6%	36.4%
Nico Paz	3.7	1.35	0.29	70.7%	84.9%	23.2%
Tasos Douvikas	2.59	1.2	0.52	49.7%	43.7%	25.8%
Assane Diao	2.34	0.87	0.42	46.0%	49.3%	25.7%
Jesús Rodriguez	2.14	0.61	0.12	31.4%	38.1%	7.1%

Parma: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
El Bilal Touré	2.29	0.76	0.31	29.9%	29.1%	13.5%
Pontus Almqvist	1.75	0.54	0.06	19.2%	15.3%	2.3%
Giovanni Fabbian	1.77	0.44	0.18	16.0%	15.7%	6.9%
Adrián Bernabé	1.69	0.39	0.09	27.7%	41.1%	7.2%
Vincent Sierro	1.19	0.36	0.2	28.6%	30.6%	17.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Como clean sheet	50.2%
Parma clean sheet	17.4%
Como win to nil	40.9%
Parma win to nil	8.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	62.6%	draw	23.9%	away	13.5%

double_chance

1X	86.5%	12	76.1%	X2	37.5%

dnb

home	82.2%	away	17.8%

btts

yes	41.3%	no	58.8%

clean_sheet

home	50.7%	away	17.4%

win_to_nil

home	41.3%	away	8.1%

winning_margin

home_by_1	26.1%	home_by_2	19.7%	home_by_3plus	16.8%
away_by_1	9.8%	away_by_2	3.0%	away_by_3plus	0.7%

correct_score

0-0	9.4%	0-1	5.5%	0-2	2.0%
0-3	0.5%	0-4	0.1%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	14.9%	1-1	11.0%	1-2	3.6%
1-3	0.8%	1-4	0.1%	1-5	0.0%
2-0	13.5%	2-1	9.2%	2-2	3.1%
2-3	0.7%	2-4	0.1%	2-5	0.0%
3-0	7.9%	3-1	5.3%	3-2	1.8%
3-3	0.4%	3-4	0.1%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	3.4%	4-1	2.3%	4-2	0.8%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.0%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	1.2%	5-1	0.8%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.9%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	0.0%	p	14.9%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	90.6%	under_0.5	9.4%	over_1.5	70.3%
under_1.5	29.7%	over_2.5	43.8%	under_2.5	56.3%
over_3.5	22.7%	under_3.5	77.3%	over_4.5	9.9%
under_4.5	90.1%	over_5.5	3.7%	under_5.5	96.3%

odd_even

odd	48.6%	even	51.4%

team_home

over_0.5	82.6%	under_0.5	17.4%	over_1.5	52.1%
under_1.5	47.9%	over_2.5	25.5%	under_2.5	74.5%

team_away

over_0.5	49.3%	under_0.5	50.7%	over_1.5	14.9%
under_1.5	85.1%	over_2.5	3.2%	under_2.5	96.8%

most

home	62.6%	draw	23.9%	away	13.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	16.8%	away_+2.5	83.2%	home_-1.5	36.5%
away_+1.5	63.5%	home_-0.5	62.6%	away_+0.5	37.5%
home_+0.5	86.5%	away_-0.5	13.5%	home_+1.5	96.3%
away_-1.5	3.7%	home_+2.5	99.3%	away_-2.5	0.7%

total_exact

exact_0	9.4%	exact_1	20.4%	exact_2	26.5%
exact_3	21.0%	exact_4	12.8%	exact_5	6.2%
exact_6	2.5%	exact_7plus	1.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	41.9%	draw	46.0%	away	12.1%

total

over_0.5	61.1%	under_0.5	38.9%	over_1.5	24.3%
under_1.5	75.7%	over_2.5	7.0%	under_2.5	93.0%

btts

yes	11.1%	no	88.9%

total_exact

exact_0	38.9%	exact_1	36.7%	exact_2	17.3%
exact_3	5.5%	exact_4plus	1.6%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	51.6%	draw	34.9%	away	13.5%

total

over_0.5	75.7%	under_0.5	24.3%	over_1.5	41.3%
under_1.5	58.7%	over_2.5	17.0%	under_2.5	83.0%

btts

yes	20.4%	no	79.6%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	37.7%	H/D	3.5%	H/A	0.7%
D/H	23.8%	D/D	16.1%	D/A	6.2%
A/H	2.4%	A/D	3.5%	A/A	6.3%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	62.6%	under_7.5	37.4%	over_8.5	51.4%
under_8.5	48.6%	over_9.5	40.6%	under_9.5	59.4%
over_10.5	30.9%	under_10.5	69.1%	over_11.5	22.7%
under_11.5	77.3%	over_12.5	16.2%	under_12.5	83.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	70.1%	under_3.5	29.9%	over_4.5	56.2%
under_4.5	43.8%	over_5.5	42.8%	under_5.5	57.2%

team_away

over_3.5	46.0%	under_3.5	54.0%	over_4.5	30.8%
under_4.5	69.2%	over_5.5	19.3%	under_5.5	80.7%

most

home	61.8%	draw	9.7%	away	28.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	31.4%	away_+3.5	68.6%	home_-1.5	51.3%
away_+1.5	48.7%	home_-0.5	61.8%	away_+0.5	38.3%
home_+0.5	71.5%	away_-0.5	28.5%	home_+1.5	79.9%
away_-1.5	20.2%	home_+3.5	91.4%	away_-3.5	8.6%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	58.9%	under_22.5	41.1%	over_24.5	46.7%
under_24.5	53.3%	over_26.5	35.1%	under_26.5	64.9%
over_28.5	24.9%	under_28.5	75.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	75.4%	under_10.5	24.6%	over_12.5	60.6%
under_12.5	39.4%	over_14.5	45.1%	under_14.5	54.9%

team_away

over_10.5	42.6%	under_10.5	57.4%	over_12.5	26.3%
under_12.5	73.7%	over_14.5	14.7%	under_14.5	85.3%

most

home	70.8%	draw	5.1%	away	24.1%

handicap

home_-4.5	47.0%	away_+4.5	53.0%	home_-2.5	59.3%
away_+2.5	40.7%	home_-0.5	70.8%	away_+0.5	29.2%
home_+0.5	75.9%	away_-0.5	24.1%	home_+2.5	84.5%
away_-2.5	15.5%	home_+4.5	90.8%	away_-4.5	9.2%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	64.7%	under_6.5	35.3%	over_7.5	53.0%
under_7.5	47.0%	over_8.5	41.7%	under_8.5	58.3%
over_9.5	31.6%	under_9.5	68.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	65.7%	under_3.5	34.3%	over_4.5	50.7%
under_4.5	49.3%	over_5.5	37.0%	under_5.5	63.0%

team_away

over_3.5	38.5%	under_3.5	61.5%	over_4.5	23.7%
under_4.5	76.4%	over_5.5	13.5%	under_5.5	86.5%

most

home	63.3%	draw	11.0%	away	25.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	39.5%	away_+2.5	60.5%	home_-0.5	63.3%
away_+0.5	36.7%	home_+0.5	74.2%	away_-0.5	25.8%
home_+2.5	89.7%	away_-2.5	10.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	71.8%	under_2.5	28.2%	over_3.5	51.7%
under_3.5	48.3%	over_4.5	32.9%	under_4.5	67.1%
over_5.5	18.7%	under_5.5	81.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	50.4%	under_1.5	49.6%	over_2.5	24.8%
under_2.5	75.2%

team_away

over_1.5	60.3%	under_1.5	39.8%	over_2.5	34.1%
under_2.5	65.9%

most

home	32.9%	draw	20.7%	away	46.5%

handicap

home_-1.5	16.7%	away_+1.5	83.3%	home_-0.5	32.9%
away_+0.5	67.2%	home_+0.5	53.5%	away_-0.5	46.5%
home_+1.5	72.9%	away_-1.5	27.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	75.0%	under_20.5	25.0%	over_22.5	62.7%
under_22.5	37.3%	over_24.5	49.5%	under_24.5	50.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	76.3%	under_9.5	23.7%	over_11.5	58.8%
under_11.5	41.2%	over_13.5	40.6%	under_13.5	59.4%

team_away

over_9.5	70.5%	under_9.5	29.5%	over_11.5	51.5%
under_11.5	48.5%	over_13.5	33.5%	under_13.5	66.5%

most

home	51.9%	draw	6.7%	away	41.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	32.4%	away_+3.5	67.6%	home_-0.5	51.9%
away_+0.5	48.1%	home_+2.5	70.9%	away_-2.5	29.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	25.1%	no	74.9%

home

yes	10.7%	no	89.3%

away

yes	16.1%	no	83.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Como predictions · Parma predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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