Serie A
Genoa vs 
Napoli Corners
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 35.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 57.6% for over 7.5 to 13.0% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.1%. On the corner count, Genoa are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 47.1%, with a level count at 11.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 18.8% | 81.2% |
| 12.5 corners | 13.0% | 87.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
57.9%
42.6%
29.6%
54.1%
38.7%
26.0%
Corner handicap
| Genoa line | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| -0.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| +0.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| +1.5 | 68.4% | 31.6% |
This season (2025/26)
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Genoa.
In-depth analysis
By team, Genoa over 4.5 corners sits at 42.6% and Napoli at 38.7%. This season Genoa have averaged 3.7 corners won a game and Napoli 5.5.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Genoa vs Napoli?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 35.5% for Genoa vs Napoli.
Which team will win the corner count in Genoa vs Napoli?
Before kickoff, the model rated Genoa to win the corner count at 47.1%, with a level count at 11.0%.
How many corners do Genoa and Napoli average this season?
Genoa have won 3.7 corners a game this season and Napoli 5.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 3,416 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Corners actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.