Serie A
Genoa vs 
Napoli Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.5% for over 2.5 to 14.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.3%. On the card count, Napoli are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 21.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.3% | 53.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.7% | 85.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.3%
21.1%
57.0%
30.6%
Card handicap
| Genoa line | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.4% | 84.6% |
| -0.5 | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| +0.5 | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| +1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 47.7% | 52.3% |
This season (2025/26)
1.7Genoa cards per game12.4Genoa fouls per game1.3Napoli cards per game11.2Napoli fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Genoa vs Napoli. It tips Napoli for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
46.3%Over 3.5 cards13.3%Any red card46.3%Genoa over 1.5 cards57.0%Napoli over 1.5 cards61.1%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Genoa over 1.5 cards sits at 46.3% and Napoli at 57.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.3% (Genoa 6.8%, Napoli 7.0%). This season Genoa have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Napoli 1.3.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Genoa vs Napoli?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.3% for Genoa vs Napoli.
Will there be a red card in Genoa vs Napoli?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Genoa vs Napoli?
Before kickoff, the model rated Napoli to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.