Serie A
Como vs 
Parma Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 51.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.8% for over 2.5 to 18.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.7%. On the card count, Parma are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 20.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.7% | 81.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.4%
24.8%
60.3%
34.1%
Card handicap
| Como line | Como | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.7% | 83.3% |
| -0.5 | 32.9% | 67.2% |
| +0.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| +1.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Como vs Parma. The model leans toward Parma for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.7%Over 3.5 cards25.1%Any red card50.4%Como over 1.5 cards60.3%Parma over 1.5 cards62.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Como over 1.5 cards sits at 50.4% and Parma at 60.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.1% (Como 10.7%, Parma 16.1%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Como vs Parma?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.7% for Como vs Parma.
Will there be a red card in Como vs Parma?
The model rates a red card for either side at 25.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Como vs Parma?
The model rates Parma to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.