Süper Lig
Genclerbirligi vs 
Amedspor Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 51.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Genclerbirligi have averaged 0.6 scored and 2.4 conceded, Amedspor 2.4 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 48.6% for over 2.5 and 74.2% for at least two goals. Genclerbirligi have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Amedspor in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.1% | 7.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.0% | 95.0% |
Team goal lines
78.2%
45.0%
19.7%
66.4%
29.8%
9.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.5% | 87.5% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 25.0% | 75.0% |
This season (2026/27)
0.7Genclerbirligi goals scored per game2.4Genclerbirligi goals conceded per game71.4%Genclerbirligi Over 2.5 rate0.3Genclerbirligi 1st-half goals per game2.9Amedspor goals scored per game1.0Amedspor goals conceded per game85.7%Amedspor Over 2.5 rate0.7Amedspor 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
52.6%Both Teams to Score48.6%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 48.6% for three or more goals and 74.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Genclerbirligi favoured at 46.6%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Genclerbirligi to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genclerbirligi vs Amedspor?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 48.6% for Genclerbirligi vs Amedspor.
Will there be a first-half goal in Genclerbirligi vs Amedspor?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 70.5%.
How often have Genclerbirligi gone over 2.5 recently?
Genclerbirligi have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Amedspor in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,782 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
