Bundesliga
Freiburg vs 
M'gladbach Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 60.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.3% for over 22.5 to 37.3% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.9%. Between the two sides, Freiburg are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.5%, with a level count at 5.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
79.5%
65.2%
49.4%
59.7%
41.8%
26.6%
Shot handicap
| Freiburg line | Freiburg | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| -2.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| -0.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| +0.5 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 51.7% | 48.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
12.5 / 5.0
8.5 / 11.5
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Freiburg.
In-depth analysis
60.9%Over 24.5 shots65.2%Freiburg over 12.5 shots41.8%M'gladbach over 12.5 shots73.9%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Freiburg over 12.5 shots sits at 65.2% and M'gladbach at 41.8%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Freiburg vs M'gladbach?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 60.9% for Freiburg vs M'gladbach.
Which team will have more shots in Freiburg vs M'gladbach?
The model rates Freiburg to take more shots at 63.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.