Augsburg vs Leverkusen: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Bundesliga

Augsburg

WWLWW

Sat, 12 Sep 202614:30UK22°C · Cloudy

Leverkusen

WLDLW

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Draw or Leverkusen

66%

Both teams to score

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

LeverkusenWin probability

44.3%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals85.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.18

Draw or Leverkusen68.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.46

Both teams to score66.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.52

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Leverkusen at 44% for 12 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Leverkusen at 54%. Caution noted. 2) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 65% with both teams to score at 66%. 3) For shots markets, Anton Kade is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Augsburg, 0 draws and 3 for Leverkusen, averaging 2.4 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Augsburg W4 D1 L1, Leverkusen W3 D1 L2. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Leverkusen win44.3%@ 2.26

Over 10.5 corners40.1%@ 2.49

Over 11.5 corners30.9%@ 3.24

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners61.2%@ 1.63

Augsburg or draw55.7%@ 1.80

Over 9.5 corners50.4%@ 1.98

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.3%@ 9.73

1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.36

2-1 correct score7.6%@ 13.25

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Augsburg

31.5%+8.4%

Draw

24.2%+1.1%

Leverkusen

44.3%-9.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.585.1%

High probability

Over 2.564.9%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes66.0%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.2%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.4%

Good chance

Over 10.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.9%

Toss-up

Most cornersAugsburg55.3%Leverkusen34.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.572.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.560.7%

Strong chance

Over 26.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.0%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Augsburg16.3 taken16.7 faced

Leverkusen17.5 taken15.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Augsburg (2 games)

4.0 / 16.5

Leverkusen (2 games)

8.5 / 12.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.585.1%2.564.9%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 2.564.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Form & head-to-head

AugsburgWWLWW

LeverkusenWLDLW

Last 5 meetings: Augsburg 2 · 0 draws · Leverkusen 3 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-04-18Leverkusen 1-2 Augsburg

2025-12-06Augsburg 2-0 Leverkusen

2025-04-26Leverkusen 2-0 Augsburg

2024-12-14Augsburg 0-2 Leverkusen

2024-05-18Leverkusen 2-1 Augsburg

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Augsburg

Leverkusen

League position#1 of 18#7 of 18

Record W-D-L2-0-01-0-1

Current streakW2W1

Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1

Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Anton KadeAugsburg · key player

To score21.2%

@ 4.72

1+ on target57.8%

@ 1.73

2+ shots55.6%

@ 1.80

Shots/90 2.66SoT/90 1.23Goals/90 0.34

Victor BonifaceLeverkusen · key player

To score24.0%

@ 4.17

1+ on target57.8%

@ 1.73

2+ shots61.2%

@ 1.63

Shots/90 4.6SoT/90 1.92Goals/90 0.61

Michael GregoritschAugsburg · in form

To score24.1%

@ 4.15

1+ on target43.8%

@ 2.28

2+ shots38.2%

@ 2.62

Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.56

Patrik SchickLeverkusen · in form

To score48.0%

@ 2.08

1+ on target67.3%

@ 1.49

2+ shots71.4%

@ 1.40

Shots/90 3.57SoT/90 1.59Goals/90 0.93

Rodrigo RibeiroAugsburg · in form

To score16.1%

@ 6.21

1+ on target37.6%

@ 2.66

2+ shots49.0%

@ 2.04

Shots/90 3.85SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.41

Christian KofaneLeverkusen · in form

To score19.8%

@ 5.05

1+ on target48.1%

@ 2.08

2+ shots50.3%

@ 1.99

Shots/90 3.6SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.47

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Augsburg win4.103.18

Draw4.104.13

Leverkusen win1.802.26

Over 2.5 goals1.401.54

Under 2.5 goals3.002.85

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Augsburg win3.05

Draw4.24

Leverkusen win2.30

Both teams to score1.51

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.17

Over 2.5 goals1.54

Over 3.5 goals2.33

Over 4.5 goals4.07

Augsburg most3.05

Leverkusen most2.30

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33

Over 8.5 corners1.57

Over 9.5 corners1.93

Over 10.5 corners2.50

Augsburg most1.80

Leverkusen most2.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33

Over 3.5 cards1.80

Over 4.5 cards2.77

Over 5.5 cards4.85

Augsburg most2.21

Leverkusen most2.94

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.20

Over 7.5 SoT1.35

Over 8.5 SoT1.58

Over 9.5 SoT1.93

Augsburg most1.67

Leverkusen most3.40

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.39

Over 24.5 shots1.65

Over 26.5 shots2.05

Over 28.5 shots2.70

Augsburg most1.67

Leverkusen most2.91

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.04

Over 22.5 fouls2.71

Over 24.5 fouls3.79

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	72.0%	Over 24.5	60.7%	Over 26.5	48.7%	Over 28.5	37.0%
Most: Augsburg	59.8%	Most: Leverkusen	34.4%
Augsburg Over 13.2	54.6%	Leverkusen Over 13.2	36.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	83.2%	Over 7.5	73.9%	Over 8.5	63.1%	Over 9.5	51.7%
Most: Augsburg	59.7%	Most: Leverkusen	29.4%
Augsburg Over 4.2	63.4%	Leverkusen Over 4.2	41.5%

Cards

Over 2.5	75.4%	Over 3.5	55.6%	Over 4.5	36.0%
Most: Augsburg	45.3%	Most: Leverkusen	34.0%
Augsburg Over 1.8	62.5%	Leverkusen Over 1.8	54.5%

Augsburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Anton Kade	2.66	1.23	0.34	57.8%	55.6%	21.2%
Michael Gregoritsch	2.69	1.17	0.56	43.8%	38.2%	24.1%
Rodrigo Ribeiro	3.85	1.1	0.41	37.6%	49.0%	16.1%
Mert Kömür	2.48	1.07	0.17	39.4%	32.4%	7.7%
Alexis Claude Maurice	2.75	0.99	0.31	55.6%	65.8%	22.4%

Leverkusen: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Victor Boniface	4.6	1.92	0.61	57.8%	61.2%	24.0%
Patrik Schick	3.57	1.59	0.93	67.3%	71.4%	48.0%
Christian Kofane	3.6	1.4	0.47	48.1%	50.3%	19.8%
Martin Terrier	2.19	0.86	0.47	29.1%	21.8%	17.1%
Jonas Hofmann	2.21	0.83	0.28	29.8%	24.3%	11.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Augsburg clean sheet	16.5%
Leverkusen clean sheet	21.2%
Augsburg win to nil	12.5%
Leverkusen win to nil	17.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	32.8%	draw	23.6%	away	43.6%

double_chance

1X	56.4%	12	76.4%	X2	67.2%

dnb

home	43.0%	away	57.0%

btts

yes	66.1%	no	34.0%

clean_sheet

home	16.6%	away	21.4%

win_to_nil

home	12.5%	away	17.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	17.0%	home_by_2	9.7%	home_by_3plus	6.1%
away_by_1	19.9%	away_by_2	13.2%	away_by_3plus	10.5%

correct_score

0-0	4.0%	0-1	5.9%	0-2	5.7%
0-3	3.4%	0-4	1.6%	0-5	0.6%
1-0	5.0%	1-1	10.3%	1-2	8.8%
1-3	5.3%	1-4	2.4%	1-5	0.9%
2-0	4.2%	2-1	7.6%	2-2	6.8%
2-3	4.1%	2-4	1.8%	2-5	0.7%
3-0	2.2%	3-1	3.9%	3-2	3.5%
3-3	2.1%	3-4	1.0%	3-5	0.3%
4-0	0.8%	4-1	1.5%	4-2	1.4%
4-3	0.8%	4-4	0.4%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.5%	5-2	0.4%
5-3	0.3%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.6%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	96.0%	under_0.5	4.0%	over_1.5	85.1%
under_1.5	14.9%	over_2.5	64.9%	under_2.5	35.1%
over_3.5	43.0%	under_3.5	57.1%	over_4.5	24.6%
under_4.5	75.4%	over_5.5	12.3%	under_5.5	87.7%

odd_even

odd	49.0%	even	51.0%

team_home

over_0.5	78.6%	under_0.5	21.4%	over_1.5	45.6%
under_1.5	54.4%	over_2.5	20.2%	under_2.5	79.8%

team_away

over_0.5	83.4%	under_0.5	16.6%	over_1.5	53.7%
under_1.5	46.3%	over_2.5	27.0%	under_2.5	73.0%

most

home	32.8%	draw	23.6%	away	43.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	6.1%	away_+2.5	93.9%	home_-1.5	15.9%
away_+1.5	84.1%	home_-0.5	32.8%	away_+0.5	67.2%
home_+0.5	56.4%	away_-0.5	43.6%	home_+1.5	76.3%
away_-1.5	23.7%	home_+2.5	89.5%	away_-2.5	10.5%

total_exact

exact_0	4.0%	exact_1	10.8%	exact_2	20.2%
exact_3	22.0%	exact_4	18.4%	exact_5	12.3%
exact_6	6.9%	exact_7plus	5.4%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	26.3%	draw	33.7%	away	40.0%

total

over_0.5	81.7%	under_0.5	18.3%	over_1.5	50.6%
under_1.5	49.5%	over_2.5	24.2%	under_2.5	75.8%

btts

yes	32.0%	no	68.0%

total_exact

exact_0	18.3%	exact_1	31.1%	exact_2	26.4%
exact_3	14.9%	exact_4plus	9.3%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	29.7%	draw	36.5%	away	33.8%

total

over_0.5	78.0%	under_0.5	22.0%	over_1.5	44.7%
under_1.5	55.3%	over_2.5	19.5%	under_2.5	80.6%

btts

yes	28.1%	no	71.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	19.3%	H/D	4.8%	H/A	2.2%
D/H	10.0%	D/D	12.3%	D/A	11.4%
A/H	2.4%	A/D	6.0%	A/A	31.6%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	75.0%	under_7.5	25.0%	over_8.5	63.8%
under_8.5	36.2%	over_9.5	51.8%	under_9.5	48.2%
over_10.5	40.1%	under_10.5	59.9%	over_11.5	29.5%
under_11.5	70.5%	over_12.5	20.8%	under_12.5	79.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	75.3%	under_3.5	24.7%	over_4.5	60.5%
under_4.5	39.5%	over_5.5	45.3%	under_5.5	54.7%

team_away

over_3.5	61.5%	under_3.5	38.5%	over_4.5	44.3%
under_4.5	55.7%	over_5.5	29.4%	under_5.5	70.6%

most

home	55.4%	draw	10.5%	away	34.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.0%	away_+3.5	75.0%	home_-1.5	44.6%
away_+1.5	55.4%	home_-0.5	55.4%	away_+0.5	44.6%
home_+0.5	65.9%	away_-0.5	34.1%	home_+1.5	75.2%
away_-1.5	24.8%	home_+3.5	88.9%	away_-3.5	11.1%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	72.0%	under_22.5	28.0%	over_24.5	60.7%
under_24.5	39.3%	over_26.5	48.7%	under_26.5	51.3%
over_28.5	37.0%	under_28.5	63.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	77.6%	under_10.5	22.4%	over_12.5	62.6%
under_12.5	37.4%	over_14.5	46.6%	under_14.5	53.4%

team_away

over_10.5	62.2%	under_10.5	37.8%	over_12.5	44.5%
under_12.5	55.5%	over_14.5	28.8%	under_14.5	71.2%

most

home	59.8%	draw	5.8%	away	34.4%

handicap

home_-4.5	35.9%	away_+4.5	64.1%	home_-2.5	47.8%
away_+2.5	52.2%	home_-0.5	59.8%	away_+0.5	40.2%
home_+0.5	65.6%	away_-0.5	34.4%	home_+2.5	76.0%
away_-2.5	24.0%	home_+4.5	84.4%	away_-4.5	15.6%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	83.3%	under_6.5	16.8%	over_7.5	73.9%
under_7.5	26.1%	over_8.5	63.1%	under_8.5	36.9%
over_9.5	51.7%	under_9.5	48.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	77.7%	under_3.5	22.3%	over_4.5	63.4%
under_4.5	36.6%	over_5.5	48.2%	under_5.5	51.8%

team_away

over_3.5	59.2%	under_3.5	40.8%	over_4.5	41.6%
under_4.5	58.5%	over_5.5	26.7%	under_5.5	73.3%

most

home	59.7%	draw	10.9%	away	29.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	36.8%	away_+2.5	63.2%	home_-0.5	59.7%
away_+0.5	40.3%	home_+0.5	70.6%	away_-0.5	29.4%
home_+2.5	87.0%	away_-2.5	13.0%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	75.4%	under_2.5	24.6%	over_3.5	55.6%
under_3.5	44.4%	over_4.5	36.0%	under_4.5	64.0%
over_5.5	20.6%	under_5.5	79.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	62.5%	under_1.5	37.5%	over_2.5	35.5%
under_2.5	64.5%

team_away

over_1.5	54.5%	under_1.5	45.5%	over_2.5	27.6%
under_2.5	72.4%

most

home	45.3%	draw	20.7%	away	34.0%

handicap

home_-1.5	26.2%	away_+1.5	73.8%	home_-0.5	45.3%
away_+0.5	54.7%	home_+0.5	66.0%	away_-0.5	34.0%
home_+1.5	82.5%	away_-1.5	17.5%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	48.9%	under_20.5	51.1%	over_22.5	36.9%
under_22.5	63.1%	over_24.5	26.4%	under_24.5	73.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	56.1%	under_9.5	43.9%	over_11.5	38.9%
under_11.5	61.1%	over_13.5	24.7%	under_13.5	75.3%

team_away

over_9.5	51.6%	under_9.5	48.4%	over_11.5	34.4%
under_11.5	65.6%	over_13.5	21.0%	under_13.5	79.0%

most

home	50.0%	draw	6.5%	away	43.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	31.3%	away_+3.5	68.7%	home_-0.5	50.0%
away_+0.5	50.0%	home_+2.5	68.7%	away_-2.5	31.3%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	11.7%	no	88.3%

home

yes	6.5%	no	93.5%

away

yes	5.6%	no	94.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Augsburg predictions · Leverkusen predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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