Freiburg vs M’gladbach prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Freiburg vs M'gladbach: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Freiburg

DLWWW

Sat, 12 Sep 202614:30UK24°C · Clear
M'gladbach

WLWLL

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

77%

Freiburg or draw

60%

Both teams to score

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
FreiburgWin probability
53.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Freiburg or draw76.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Both teams to score59.6%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

Few Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Freiburg carry a 53% win probability against M'gladbach on 12 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Freiburg higher (58%) than our model does. • Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. • Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Freiburg against W2 D1 L3 for M'gladbach. • Igor Matanovic drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Freiburg, 1 draws and 0 for M'gladbach at 2.6 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or M'gladbach46.7%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners38.2%@ 2.62
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.3%@ 1.69
Over 2.5 goals58.9%@ 1.70
Over 9.5 corners48.5%@ 2.06
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.09
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.31
1-0 correct score8.2%@ 12.21

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Freiburg

53.3%-4.5%

Draw

23.4%+1.9%

M'gladbach

23.4%+2.7%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.4%

High probability

Over 2.558.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.3%

Good chance

Over 9.548.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.1%

Low chance

Most cornersFreiburg57.2%M'gladbach32.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.572.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.560.9%

Strong chance

Over 26.548.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.3%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Freiburg11.5 taken13.5 faced
M'gladbach14.5 taken13.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Freiburg (2 games)

12.5 / 5.0

M'gladbach (2 games)

8.5 / 11.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.4%2.558.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

FreiburgDLWWW
M'gladbachWLWLL

Last 5 meetings: Freiburg 4 · 1 draws · M'gladbach 0 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-02-22Freiburg 2-1 M'gladbach
2025-10-05M'gladbach 0-0 Freiburg
2025-04-12M'gladbach 1-2 Freiburg
2024-11-30Freiburg 3-1 M'gladbach
2024-03-30M'gladbach 0-3 Freiburg

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

FreiburgM'gladbach
League position#2 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L2-0-00-0-2
Current streakW2L2
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Igor MatanovicFreiburg · key player
To score26.8%

@ 3.73

1+ on target44.1%

@ 2.27

2+ shots44.2%

@ 2.26

Shots/90 3.22SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.67
Tim KleindienstM'gladbach · key player
To score33.1%

@ 3.02

1+ on target64.2%

@ 1.56

2+ shots63.1%

@ 1.58

Shots/90 2.4SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.45
Vincenzo GrifoFreiburg · in form
To score20.2%

@ 4.95

1+ on target44.9%

@ 2.23

2+ shots40.5%

@ 2.47

Shots/90 2.03SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.33
Shuto MachinoM'gladbach · in form
To score19.1%

@ 5.24

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots30.6%

@ 3.27

Shots/90 2.21SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.42
Derry ScherhantFreiburg · in form
To score13.6%

@ 7.35

1+ on target33.8%

@ 2.96

2+ shots36.0%

@ 2.78

Shots/90 2.6SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.3
Hugo BolinM'gladbach · in form
To score16.9%

@ 5.92

1+ on target39.5%

@ 2.53

2+ shots46.3%

@ 2.16

Shots/90 2.96SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.35

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Freiburg win1.671.88
Draw4.334.28
M'gladbach win4.504.28
Over 2.5 goals1.531.70
Under 2.5 goals2.502.43

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Freiburg win1.92
Draw4.21
M'gladbach win4.13
Both teams to score1.68

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.70
Over 3.5 goals2.73
Freiburg most1.92
M'gladbach most4.13

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.62
Over 9.5 corners2.02
Over 10.5 corners2.64
Freiburg most1.75
M'gladbach most3.10

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.98
Over 4.5 cards3.21
Over 5.5 cards5.93
Freiburg most2.78
M'gladbach most2.35

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.20
Over 7.5 SoT1.35
Over 8.5 SoT1.59
Over 9.5 SoT1.94
Freiburg most1.59
M'gladbach most3.77

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.38
Over 24.5 shots1.64
Over 26.5 shots2.04
Over 28.5 shots2.68
Freiburg most1.58
M'gladbach most3.23

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.89
Over 22.5 fouls2.45
Over 24.5 fouls3.34
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 72.3% Over 24.5 60.9% Over 26.5 48.9% Over 28.5 37.2%
Most: Freiburg 63.5% Most: M'gladbach 31.0%
Freiburg Over 13.2 57.3% M'gladbach Over 13.2 33.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 83.2% Over 7.5 73.9% Over 8.5 63.1% Over 9.5 51.7%
Most: Freiburg 63.0% Most: M'gladbach 26.5%
Freiburg Over 4.2 65.4% M'gladbach Over 4.2 38.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.3% Over 3.5 50.4% Over 4.5 31.1%
Most: Freiburg 35.9% Most: M'gladbach 42.5%
Freiburg Over 1.8 52.6% M'gladbach Over 1.8 57.4%

Freiburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Igor Matanovic 3.22 1.25 0.67 44.1% 44.2% 26.8%
Vincenzo Grifo 2.03 0.87 0.33 44.9% 40.5% 20.2%
Derry Scherhant 2.6 0.85 0.3 33.8% 36.0% 13.6%
Yuito Suzuki 2.1 0.81 0.33 45.5% 46.6% 21.9%
Lucas Höler 1.54 0.73 0.21 39.2% 28.3% 13.3%

M'gladbach: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Tim Kleindienst 2.4 1.15 0.45 64.2% 63.1% 33.1%
Shuto Machino 2.21 0.99 0.42 39.3% 30.6% 19.1%
Hugo Bolin 2.96 0.95 0.35 39.5% 46.3% 16.9%
Robin Hack 2.39 0.94 0.17 47.7% 49.1% 11.1%
Wael Mohya 1.82 0.78 0.26 28.3% 18.3% 10.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Freiburg clean sheet 29.6%
M'gladbach clean sheet 15.7%
Freiburg win to nil 24.4%
M'gladbach win to nil 10.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.0% draw 23.8% away 24.2%
double_chance
1X 75.8% 12 76.2% X2 48.0%
dnb
home 68.2% away 31.8%
btts
yes 59.6% no 40.5%
clean_sheet
home 30.0% away 15.7%
win_to_nil
home 24.7% away 10.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.3% home_by_2 16.0% home_by_3plus 13.8%
away_by_1 14.3% away_by_2 6.8% away_by_3plus 3.1%
correct_score
0-0 5.3% 0-1 5.1% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.4% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.2% 1-1 11.0% 1-2 6.3%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.1% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 5.8%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 5.0% 3-1 6.0% 3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.3% 4-1 2.8% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 1.0% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.8% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 81.4%
under_1.5 18.6% over_2.5 59.0% under_2.5 41.1%
over_3.5 36.6% under_3.5 63.4% over_4.5 19.5%
under_4.5 80.5% over_5.5 9.0% under_5.5 91.0%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.3% under_0.5 15.7% over_1.5 55.3%
under_1.5 44.7% over_2.5 28.4% under_2.5 71.6%
team_away
over_0.5 70.0% under_0.5 30.0% over_1.5 33.9%
under_1.5 66.1% over_2.5 12.2% under_2.5 87.8%
most
home 52.0% draw 23.8% away 24.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.8% away_+2.5 86.3% home_-1.5 29.8%
away_+1.5 70.2% home_-0.5 52.0% away_+0.5 48.0%
home_+0.5 75.8% away_-0.5 24.2% home_+1.5 90.1%
away_-1.5 9.9% home_+2.5 96.9% away_-2.5 3.1%
total_exact
exact_0 5.3% exact_1 13.3% exact_2 22.5%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.1% exact_5 10.5%
exact_6 5.4% exact_7plus 3.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.4% draw 37.9% away 18.8%
total
over_0.5 74.0% under_0.5 26.0% over_1.5 39.0%
under_1.5 61.0% over_2.5 15.4% under_2.5 84.6%
btts
yes 21.9% no 78.1%
total_exact
exact_0 26.0% exact_1 35.0% exact_2 23.6%
exact_3 10.6% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.8% draw 33.3% away 26.9%
total
over_0.5 82.3% under_0.5 17.7% over_1.5 51.7%
under_1.5 48.3% over_2.5 25.2% under_2.5 74.8%
btts
yes 33.0% no 67.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 34.9% H/D 6.0% H/A 2.5%
D/H 15.0% D/D 12.6% D/A 10.2%
A/H 2.4% A/D 4.0% A/A 12.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.3% under_7.5 26.7% over_8.5 61.8%
under_8.5 38.2% over_9.5 49.6% under_9.5 50.4%
over_10.5 37.9% under_10.5 62.1% over_11.5 27.6%
under_11.5 72.4% over_12.5 19.1% under_12.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.3% under_3.5 24.7% over_4.5 60.4%
under_4.5 39.6% over_5.5 45.2% under_5.5 54.8%
team_away
over_3.5 58.6% under_3.5 41.4% over_4.5 41.3%
under_4.5 58.7% over_5.5 26.7% under_5.5 73.3%
most
home 57.3% draw 10.5% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.2% away_+3.5 73.8% home_-1.5 46.3%
away_+1.5 53.7% home_-0.5 57.3% away_+0.5 42.7%
home_+0.5 67.8% away_-0.5 32.3% home_+1.5 77.0%
away_-1.5 23.0% home_+3.5 90.1% away_-3.5 9.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.3% under_22.5 27.7% over_24.5 60.9%
under_24.5 39.1% over_26.5 48.9% under_26.5 51.1%
over_28.5 37.3% under_28.5 62.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 79.5% under_10.5 20.5% over_12.5 65.2%
under_12.5 34.8% over_14.5 49.4% under_14.5 50.6%
team_away
over_10.5 59.7% under_10.5 40.3% over_12.5 41.8%
under_12.5 58.2% over_14.5 26.6% under_14.5 73.5%
most
home 63.5% draw 5.6% away 31.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.5% away_+4.5 60.5% home_-2.5 51.6%
away_+2.5 48.4% home_-0.5 63.5% away_+0.5 36.5%
home_+0.5 69.0% away_-0.5 31.0% home_+2.5 78.9%
away_-2.5 21.2% home_+4.5 86.6% away_-4.5 13.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 83.2% under_6.5 16.8% over_7.5 73.9%
under_7.5 26.1% over_8.5 63.1% under_8.5 36.9%
over_9.5 51.7% under_9.5 48.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.2% under_3.5 20.8% over_4.5 65.4%
under_4.5 34.6% over_5.5 50.4% under_5.5 49.6%
team_away
over_3.5 56.6% under_3.5 43.4% over_4.5 38.9%
under_4.5 61.1% over_5.5 24.4% under_5.5 75.6%
most
home 63.0% draw 10.5% away 26.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 40.0% away_+2.5 60.0% home_-0.5 63.0%
away_+0.5 37.0% home_+0.5 73.5% away_-0.5 26.5%
home_+2.5 88.8% away_-2.5 11.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.3% under_2.5 28.7% over_3.5 50.4%
under_3.5 49.6% over_4.5 31.1% under_4.5 68.9%
over_5.5 16.9% under_5.5 83.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.6% under_1.5 47.4% over_2.5 26.0%
under_2.5 74.1%
team_away
over_1.5 57.4% under_1.5 42.6% over_2.5 30.4%
under_2.5 69.6%
most
home 35.9% draw 21.6% away 42.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.4% away_+1.5 81.6% home_-0.5 35.9%
away_+0.5 64.1% home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.5%
home_+1.5 76.6% away_-1.5 23.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 53.0% under_20.5 47.0% over_22.5 40.8%
under_22.5 59.2% over_24.5 29.9% under_24.5 70.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 50.9% under_9.5 49.1% over_11.5 33.8%
under_11.5 66.2% over_13.5 20.5% under_13.5 79.5%
team_away
over_9.5 62.0% under_9.5 38.0% over_11.5 45.1%
under_11.5 54.9% over_13.5 30.2% under_13.5 69.8%
most
home 38.9% draw 6.2% away 54.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.4% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-0.5 38.9%
away_+0.5 61.1% home_+2.5 57.8% away_-2.5 42.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.0% no 88.0%
home
yes 5.3% no 94.7%
away
yes 7.1% no 92.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Freiburg predictions · M'gladbach predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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