Bundesliga
Freiburg vs 
M'gladbach Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 11.0% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Freiburg have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, M'gladbach 1.8 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 58.9% for over 2.5 and 81.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-0 | 8.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
| 1-2 | 6.3% |
| 3-1 | 6.0% |
| 2-2 | 5.8% |
| 0-0 | 5.3% |
Score probability grid
| Freiburg \ M'gladbach | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 8% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Freiburg goals, columns = M'gladbach. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
59.6%Both Teams to Score58.9%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 58.9% for three or more goals and 81.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Freiburg favoured at 53.3%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Freiburg 4 · 1 draws · M'gladbach 0 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Freiburg vs M'gladbach?
The model's most likely scoreline for Freiburg vs M'gladbach is 1-1 at 11.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.