Eredivisie
Feyenoord vs 
AZ Alkmaar Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 65.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.1% for over 22.5 to 43.3% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.3%. Head to head on shots, Feyenoord are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.1%, with a level count at 5.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 43.3% | 56.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.0%
64.6%
49.9%
65.4%
49.4%
34.5%
Shot handicap
| Feyenoord line | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| -2.5 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| -0.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| +0.5 | 63.4% | 36.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 77.3% | 22.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 56.9% | 43.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
22.2Feyenoord shots per game10.2Feyenoord shots faced per game19.8AZ Alkmaar shots per game9.0AZ Alkmaar shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Feyenoord.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
65.1%Over 24.5 shots64.6%Feyenoord over 12.5 shots49.4%AZ Alkmaar over 12.5 shots77.3%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Feyenoord over 12.5 shots sits at 64.6% and AZ Alkmaar at 49.4%. This season Feyenoord have averaged 22.2 shots a game and AZ Alkmaar 19.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 65.1% for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar.
Which team will have more shots in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model rates Feyenoord to take more shots at 58.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
