AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
ExeterExeterDDLDL
Full time1-0Sat, 3 Oct 20263/1015:00UK
RotherhamRotherhamDLDWD

Exeter 1-0 Rotherham cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48%

Result

Exeter1-0Rotherham
3 yellow cardsExeter 2, Rotherham 1
0 red cardsExeter 0, Rotherham 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.0% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 92.3% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

L Sandoe

Recorded match referee.

L Sandoe in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 6 3
Goals 1.67 Not available
Yellow cards 3.33 Not available
Red cards 0.00 Not available
Corners 10.2 Not available
Fouls 19.7 Not available
Both teams scored 33% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 0% Not available
Home wins 33% Not available
Latest 6 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Crawley Town vs Tranmere 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 20 20
3 Oct 2026 Exeter vs Rotherham 1-0 1 No 3 0 10 21
22 Aug 2026 Crewe vs Northampton 1-0 1 No 2 0 13 26
14 Mar 2026 Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham 0-2 2 No 5 0 3 15
7 Mar 2026 Gillingham vs Fleetwood Town 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 4 19
21 Feb 2026 Newport County vs Cambridge 0-2 2 No 4 0 11 17

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Exeter vs Rotherham. Slightly more cards are projected for Rotherham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.6% 27.4%
3.5 cards 52.0% 48.0%
4.5 cards 32.6% 67.4%
5.5 cards 18.0% 82.0%

Who picks up more cards

Exeter
30.5%
Level
20.9%
Rotherham
48.6%

Team cards lines

Exeter

Over 1.5
49.3%
Over 2.5
23.1%

Rotherham

Over 1.5
62.4%
Over 2.5
35.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Exeter's; Rotherham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Exeter line Exeter Rotherham
-1.5 14.8% 85.3%
-0.5 30.5% 69.5%
+0.5 51.4% 48.6%
+1.5 71.5% 28.5%

Red card

Any red card7.7%
Exeter red card6.0%
Rotherham red card1.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 71.9% 28.1%
22.5 fouls 57.3% 42.7%
24.5 fouls 42.1% 57.9%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.6% for over 2.5 to 18.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. Between the two sides, Rotherham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.6%, with a level count at 20.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Exeter over 1.5 cards sits at 49.3% and Rotherham at 62.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.7% (Exeter 6.0%, Rotherham 1.8%). This season Exeter have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Rotherham 2.0.

52.0%Over 3.5 cards
7.7%Any red card
48.6%Most cards: Rotherham
49.3%Exeter over 1.5 cards
62.4%Rotherham over 1.5 cards
57.3%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianRotherham are the pick to collect more cards at 48.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ExeterExeter

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

RotherhamRotherham
Statistic
Exeter
Rotherham
cards per game
1.6
2.0

fouls per game
12.1
12.5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Exeter vs Rotherham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.0% for Exeter vs Rotherham.
Will there be a red card in Exeter vs Rotherham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 7.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Exeter vs Rotherham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rotherham to pick up more cards at 48.6%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoExeter fixtures and statsRotherham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.