AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
ExeterExeterLDLWW
Full time2-0Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
CreweCreweDDDWW

Exeter 2-0 Crewe cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.7%

Result

Exeter2-0Crewe
2 yellow cardsExeter 1, Crewe 1
0 red cardsExeter 0, Crewe 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.3% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 94.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Harry Wager

Recorded match referee.

Harry Wager in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 9 2
Goals 3.33 Not available
Yellow cards 4.22 Not available
Red cards 0.00 Not available
Corners 9.0 Not available
Fouls 22.4 Not available
Both teams scored 56% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 56% Not available
Home wins 56% Not available
Latest 9 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Exeter vs Crewe 2-0 2 No 2 0 9 24
15 Aug 2026 Cheltenham vs Rotherham 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 9 21
21 Mar 2026 Accrington vs Chesterfield 0-1 1 No 3 0 11 23
17 Mar 2026 Crawley Town vs Barnet 1-1 2 Yes 8 0 15 29
10 Mar 2026 Gillingham vs Milton Keynes Dons 1-5 6 Yes 4 0 8 20
21 Feb 2026 Notts County vs Tranmere 5-0 5 No 3 0 7 17
14 Feb 2026 Shrewsbury vs Swindon 3-1 4 Yes 6 0 9 23
24 Jan 2026 Cheltenham vs Grimsby 0-2 2 No 5 0 9 24
20 Dec 2025 Colchester vs Newport County 4-1 5 Yes 3 0 4 21

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Exeter vs Crewe. It tips Crewe for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.8% 27.2%
3.5 cards 52.3% 47.7%
4.5 cards 32.9% 67.1%
5.5 cards 18.2% 81.8%

Who picks up more cards

Exeter
33.2%
Level
21.1%
Crewe
45.8%

Team cards lines

Exeter

Over 1.5
51.7%
Over 2.5
25.1%

Crewe

Over 1.5
60.8%
Over 2.5
33.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Exeter's; Crewe gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Exeter line Exeter Crewe
-1.5 16.6% 83.4%
-0.5 33.2% 66.9%
+0.5 54.3% 45.8%
+1.5 73.9% 26.1%

Red card

Any red card5.5%
Exeter red card2.6%
Crewe red card3.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.8% 22.2%
22.5 fouls 64.6% 35.4%
24.5 fouls 49.7% 50.3%
ExeterExeter

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Exeter at home and Crewe away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CreweCrewe
Statistic
Exeter
Crewe
Cards per game at this venue
1.6
2.2

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.2
1.4

Yellow cards per game
1.7
1.8

Matches with card data
10
10
Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.8% for over 2.5 to 18.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. On the card count, Crewe are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 21.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Exeter over 1.5 cards sits at 51.7% and Crewe at 60.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.5% (Exeter 2.6%, Crewe 3.0%). This season Exeter have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Crewe 1.9.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

52.3%Over 3.5 cards
5.5%Any red card
45.8%Most cards: Crewe
51.7%Exeter over 1.5 cards
60.8%Crewe over 1.5 cards
64.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.5%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCrewe are the pick to collect more cards at 45.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ExeterExeter

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CreweCrewe
Statistic
Exeter
Crewe
cards per game
1.7
1.9

fouls per game
11.4
12.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Exeter vs Crewe?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.3% for Exeter vs Crewe.
Will there be a red card in Exeter vs Crewe?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 5.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Exeter vs Crewe?
Before kickoff, the model rated Crewe to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoExeter fixtures and statsCrewe fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.