Premier League
Everton vs 
Crystal Palace Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 47.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.7% for over 2.5 to 14.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.3%. On the card count, Crystal Palace are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 22.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.8% | 85.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.5%
23.3%
56.1%
29.1%
Card handicap
| Everton line | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| -0.5 | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| +0.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| +1.5 | 76.3% | 23.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 23.2% | 76.8% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | C Kavanagh | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Everton | M Oliver | 4 | 4.0 | 2.3 |
| Everton | S Attwell | 4 | 6.3 | 4.0 |
| Crystal Palace | T Bramall | 6 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Crystal Palace | A Madley | 4 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| Crystal Palace | D England | 4 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Everton vs Crystal Palace. It tips Crystal Palace for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
47.3%Over 3.5 cards13.7%Any red card49.5%Everton over 1.5 cards56.1%Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards37.0%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Everton over 1.5 cards sits at 49.5% and Crystal Palace at 56.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.7% (Everton 11.5%, Crystal Palace 2.5%). Everton’s most frequent referee this season, C Kavanagh, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 4 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 47.3% for Everton vs Crystal Palace.
Will there be a red card in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated Crystal Palace to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 22.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.