Everton vs Crystal Palace prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

By /

Everton vs Crystal Palace: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Premier League
Everton

LDDLL

Full time2-0Sat, 22 Aug 202615:00UK18°C · Cloudy
Crystal Palace

LDLDL

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Everton or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score
2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Everton at 41.6%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 52.7% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 52.3% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
EvertonWin probability
41.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals73.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Everton or draw69.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.44
Over 8.5 corners61.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

The model leans Everton at 42% when Everton host Crystal Palace in the Premier League on 22 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The numbers that frame it: • The market broadly agrees, pricing Everton at 45%. • No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • On the availability front, Everton have Nørgaard ruled out, Iroegbunam ruled out, Jack Grealish, Carlos Alcaraz, Tyrique George ruled out; Crystal Palace have Chadi Riad a doubt. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Everton, 2 draws and 0 for Crystal Palace at 3.0 goals per match. For shots markets, Beto is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Everton arrive W0 D2 L4, Crystal Palace W0 D2 L4. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.3%@ 2.11
Over 10.5 corners41.4%@ 2.42
Over 11.5 corners32.4%@ 3.09
Medium risk

Draw or Crystal Palace58.4%@ 1.71
Under 2.5 goals52.7%@ 1.90
Both teams to score52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.63
1-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.78
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.43

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Everton

41.6%-3.0%

Draw

27.7%+0.8%

Palace

30.7%+2.1%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.2%

Good chance

Over 10.541.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersEverton52.8%Crystal Palace36.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.5%

Good chance

Over 24.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.2%2.547.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.573.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

EvertonLDDLL
Crystal PalaceLDLDL

Last 5 meetings: Everton 3 · 2 draws · Crystal Palace 0 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-05-10Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton
2025-10-05Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace
2025-02-15Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton
2024-09-28Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace
2024-02-19Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace

Referee history

Everton
C Kavanagh4 matches · team cards 2.5/g · match 3.5/g
M Oliver4 matches · team cards 2.3/g · match 4.0/g
S Attwell4 matches · team cards 4.0/g · match 6.3/g
Crystal Palace
T Bramall6 matches · team cards 1.5/g · match 2.7/g
A Madley4 matches · team cards 1.8/g · match 3.5/g
D England4 matches · team cards 2.5/g · match 3.8/g

Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

BetoEverton · key player
To score22.7%

@ 4.41

1+ on target45.6%

@ 2.19

2+ shots40.5%

@ 2.47

Shots/90 2.7SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.5
Eddie NketiahCrystal Palace · key player
To score11.6%

@ 8.62

1+ on target41.4%

@ 2.42

2+ shots41.3%

@ 2.42

Shots/90 3.78SoT/90 1.43Goals/90 0.33
Dominic Calvert-LewinEverton · in form
To score11.0%

@ 9.09

1+ on target53.3%

@ 1.88

2+ shots59.4%

@ 1.68

Shots/90 2.91SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.17
Jean-Philippe MatetaCrystal Palace · in form
To score31.7%

@ 3.15

1+ on target59.9%

@ 1.67

2+ shots57.8%

@ 1.73

Shots/90 2.44SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.48
Carlos AlcarazEverton · in form
To score5.7%

@ 17.54

1+ on target36.8%

@ 2.72

2+ shots37.9%

@ 2.64

Shots/90 2.9SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.13
Eberechi EzeCrystal Palace · in form
To score20.7%

@ 4.83

1+ on target56.2%

@ 1.78

2+ shots79.6%

@ 1.26

Shots/90 3.45SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0.27

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Everton win2.152.40
Draw3.503.61
Crystal Palace win3.303.26
Over 2.5 goals1.952.11
Under 2.5 goals1.901.90

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Everton win2.39
Draw3.63
Crystal Palace win3.27
Both teams to score1.91

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.12
Over 3.5 goals3.90
Everton most2.39
Crystal Palace most3.27

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.88
Over 10.5 corners2.41
Everton most1.89
Crystal Palace most2.71

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.46
Over 3.5 cards2.12
Over 4.5 cards3.54
Over 5.5 cards6.75
Everton most2.90
Crystal Palace most2.30

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.19
Over 9.5 SoT2.91
Everton most2.01
Crystal Palace most2.64

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.74
Over 24.5 shots2.19
Over 26.5 shots2.90
Over 28.5 shots4.04
Everton most1.72
Crystal Palace most2.78

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.88
Over 22.5 fouls2.70
Over 24.5 fouls4.30

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • NørgaardEvertonOut0% to play
  • IroegbunamEvertonOut0% to play
  • Jack Grealish, Carlos Alcaraz, Tyrique GeorgeEvertonOut
  • Chadi RiadCrystal PalaceDoubtful50% to play
  • SarrCrystal PalaceDoubtful75% to play
  • Edward Nketiah, Cheick DoucoureCrystal PalaceOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 69.8% Over 7.5 57.8% Over 8.5 45.6% Over 9.5 34.3%
Most: Everton 49.7% Most: Crystal Palace 37.9%
Everton Over 4.2 44.7% Crystal Palace Over 4.2 36.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.7% Over 3.5 47.3% Over 4.5 28.3%
Most: Everton 34.5% Most: Crystal Palace 43.5%
Everton Over 1.8 49.5% Crystal Palace Over 1.8 56.1%

Everton: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Beto 2.7 1.18 0.5 45.6% 40.5% 22.7%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 2.91 1.11 0.17 53.3% 59.4% 11.0%
Carlos Alcaraz 2.9 1.01 0.13 36.8% 37.9% 5.7%
Jesper Lindstrom 1.97 0.7 0 32.8% 30.8% 0.0%
Iliman Ndiaye 1.37 0.67 0.26 45.8% 35.6% 21.1%

Crystal Palace: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Eddie Nketiah 3.78 1.43 0.33 41.4% 41.3% 11.6%
Jean-Philippe Mateta 2.44 1.15 0.48 59.9% 57.8% 31.7%
Eberechi Eze 3.45 0.96 0.27 56.2% 79.6% 20.7%
Ismaila Sarr 1.96 0.9 0.31 43.3% 35.0% 17.7%
Justin Devenny 1.68 0.73 0.15 20.3% 9.7% 4.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Everton clean sheet 31.3%
Crystal Palace clean sheet 24.6%
Everton win to nil 23.0%
Crystal Palace win to nil 16.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.9% draw 27.6% away 30.6%
double_chance
1X 69.4% 12 72.5% X2 58.1%
dnb
home 57.8% away 42.2%
btts
yes 52.3% no 47.7%
clean_sheet
home 31.4% away 24.6%
win_to_nil
home 23.1% away 16.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.7% home_by_2 12.6% home_by_3plus 7.6%
away_by_1 17.8% away_by_2 8.7% away_by_3plus 4.1%
correct_score
0-0 8.4% 0-1 8.3% 0-2 5.2%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.2% 1-1 13.1% 1-2 7.2%
1-3 2.8% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.6% 2-1 8.8% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.6% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.6% under_0.5 8.4% over_1.5 73.2%
under_1.5 26.8% over_2.5 47.3% under_2.5 52.7%
over_3.5 25.7% under_3.5 74.3% over_4.5 11.8%
under_4.5 88.2% over_5.5 4.7% under_5.5 95.3%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 75.4% under_0.5 24.6% over_1.5 40.9%
under_1.5 59.1% over_2.5 16.7% under_2.5 83.3%
team_away
over_0.5 68.6% under_0.5 31.4% over_1.5 32.4%
under_1.5 67.6% over_2.5 11.4% under_2.5 88.6%
most
home 41.9% draw 27.6% away 30.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.6% away_+2.5 92.5% home_-1.5 20.2%
away_+1.5 79.8% home_-0.5 41.9% away_+0.5 58.1%
home_+0.5 69.4% away_-0.5 30.6% home_+1.5 87.2%
away_-1.5 12.8% home_+2.5 95.9% away_-2.5 4.1%
total_exact
exact_0 8.4% exact_1 18.5% exact_2 25.9%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.9% exact_5 7.1%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 42.5% away 18.7%
total
over_0.5 67.7% under_0.5 32.3% over_1.5 31.2%
under_1.5 68.8% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
btts
yes 17.3% no 82.7%
total_exact
exact_0 32.3% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.7%
exact_3 7.8% exact_4plus 2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 39.4% away 28.3%
total
over_0.5 73.6% under_0.5 26.4% over_1.5 38.5%
under_1.5 61.5% over_2.5 15.0% under_2.5 85.0%
btts
yes 23.6% no 76.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.5% H/D 6.2% H/A 2.2%
D/H 13.7% D/D 16.8% D/A 12.0%
A/H 1.5% A/D 3.7% A/A 13.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.7% under_7.5 24.3% over_8.5 64.8%
under_8.5 35.2% over_9.5 53.1% under_9.5 46.9%
over_10.5 41.6% under_10.5 58.5% over_11.5 31.1%
under_11.5 68.9% over_12.5 22.2% under_12.5 77.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.8% under_3.5 26.2% over_4.5 59.1%
under_4.5 40.9% over_5.5 44.4% under_5.5 55.6%
team_away
over_3.5 63.3% under_3.5 36.7% over_4.5 46.9%
under_4.5 53.1% over_5.5 32.3% under_5.5 67.7%
most
home 52.9% draw 10.1% away 37.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.3% away_+3.5 75.6% home_-1.5 42.7%
away_+1.5 57.3% home_-0.5 52.9% away_+0.5 47.1%
home_+0.5 63.0% away_-0.5 37.0% home_+1.5 72.3%
away_-1.5 27.7% home_+3.5 86.5% away_-3.5 13.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 57.5% under_22.5 42.5% over_24.5 45.7%
under_24.5 54.4% over_26.5 34.5% under_26.5 65.5%
over_28.5 24.8% under_28.5 75.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 67.0% under_10.5 33.0% over_12.5 51.0%
under_12.5 49.0% over_14.5 36.0% under_14.5 64.0%
team_away
over_10.5 51.7% under_10.5 48.3% over_12.5 35.0%
under_12.5 65.0% over_14.5 21.7% under_14.5 78.3%
most
home 58.2% draw 5.8% away 35.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.6% away_+4.5 65.4% home_-2.5 46.2%
away_+2.5 53.8% home_-0.5 58.2% away_+0.5 41.8%
home_+0.5 64.1% away_-0.5 35.9% home_+2.5 74.6%
away_-2.5 25.4% home_+4.5 83.3% away_-4.5 16.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 69.8% under_6.5 30.2% over_7.5 57.8%
under_7.5 42.3% over_8.5 45.6% under_8.5 54.4%
over_9.5 34.4% under_9.5 65.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.5% under_3.5 38.5% over_4.5 44.7%
under_4.5 55.3% over_5.5 30.0% under_5.5 70.0%
team_away
over_3.5 53.3% under_3.5 46.7% over_4.5 36.2%
under_4.5 63.8% over_5.5 22.6% under_5.5 77.4%
most
home 49.7% draw 12.4% away 37.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.4% away_+2.5 73.6% home_-0.5 49.7%
away_+0.5 50.3% home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 37.9%
home_+2.5 82.5% away_-2.5 17.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.7% under_2.5 31.3% over_3.5 47.3%
under_3.5 52.7% over_4.5 28.3% under_4.5 71.7%
over_5.5 14.8% under_5.5 85.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 49.5% under_1.5 50.5% over_2.5 23.3%
under_2.5 76.7%
team_away
over_1.5 56.1% under_1.5 43.9% over_2.5 29.1%
under_2.5 70.9%
most
home 34.5% draw 22.0% away 43.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.1% away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 34.5%
away_+0.5 65.5% home_+0.5 56.5% away_-0.5 43.5%
home_+1.5 76.3% away_-1.5 23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 53.3% under_20.5 46.7% over_22.5 37.0%
under_22.5 63.0% over_24.5 23.2% under_24.5 76.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.4% under_9.5 42.6% over_11.5 34.3%
under_11.5 65.7% over_13.5 16.9% under_13.5 83.1%
team_away
over_9.5 62.6% under_9.5 37.4% over_11.5 39.5%
under_11.5 60.5% over_13.5 20.7% under_13.5 79.3%
most
home 42.0% draw 8.3% away 49.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.3% away_+3.5 79.7% home_-0.5 42.0%
away_+0.5 58.0% home_+2.5 66.6% away_-2.5 33.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.7% no 86.3%
home
yes 11.5% no 88.5%
away
yes 2.5% no 97.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Everton predictions · Crystal Palace predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Premier LeagueEvertonCrystal PalaceTrack record