Ipswich vs Sunderland: model prediction
Premier League
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Sunderland
Ipswich or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Sunderland at 38.7%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 54.9% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 51.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Ipswich and Sunderland on 22 August 2026: Sunderland nose ahead at 39%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 36%. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 45% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. 3) Fatigue may matter, with Sunderland 364 days shorter on recovery than Ipswich. As a promoted side, Ipswich carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Ipswich arrive W0 D1 L5, Sunderland W2 D2 L2. Squad notes: Sunderland have Adingra ruled out, Jocelin Ta Bi, Romaine Mundle, Bertrand Traore, Nilson Angulo, Nordi Mukiele, Robin Roefs, Enzo Le Fee ruled out. Julio Enciso drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
32.6%-2.6%
28.7%+0.1%
38.7%+2.5%
value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 7.09
@ 1.75
@ 1.42
@ 5.88
@ 2.54
@ 2.57
@ 5.21
@ 2.14
@ 3.30
@ 12.82
@ 2.54
@ 3.79
@ 3.50
@ 1.74
@ 1.77
@ 5.00
@ 2.36
@ 3.09
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
- AdingraSunderlandOut0% to play
- Jocelin Ta Bi, Romaine Mundle, Bertrand Traore, Nilson Angulo, Nordi Mukiele, Robin Roefs, Enzo Le FeeSunderlandOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.5% | Over 7.5 | 60.9% | Over 8.5 | 48.9% | Over 9.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ipswich | 52.3% | Most: Sunderland | 35.7% | ||||
| Ipswich Over 4.2 | 48.7% | Sunderland Over 4.2 | 36.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 75.2% | Over 3.5 | 55.3% | Over 4.5 | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ipswich | 32.4% | Most: Sunderland | 47.1% | ||
| Ipswich Over 1.8 | 53.0% | Sunderland Over 1.8 | 63.5% |
Ipswich: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Enciso | 3.23 | 1.11 | 0.2 | 57.1% | 70.5% | 14.1% |
| Sammie Szmodics | 1.87 | 1.07 | 0.36 | 46.8% | 30.3% | 19.2% |
| Liam Delap | 2.36 | 1.07 | 0.42 | 57.6% | 56.4% | 28.6% |
| Nathan Broadhead | 1.73 | 1.06 | 0.27 | 35.8% | 16.4% | 10.7% |
| George Hirst | 2.07 | 1.03 | 0.44 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% |
Sunderland: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson Isidor | 3.39 | 1.26 | 0.47 | 39.3% | 38.9% | 17.0% |
| Bertrand Traoré | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.13 | 39.3% | 26.4% | 7.8% |
| Brian Brobbey | 1.67 | 0.79 | 0.32 | 42.3% | 32.4% | 20.0% |
| Eliezer Mayenda | 1.58 | 0.73 | 0.24 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 9.4% |
| Chemsdine Talbi | 1.45 | 0.52 | 0.23 | 27.5% | 22.6% | 13.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Ipswich clean sheet | 28.1% |
|---|---|
| Sunderland clean sheet | 29.8% |
| Ipswich win to nil | 19.0% |
| Sunderland win to nil | 20.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 34.4% | draw | 28.4% | away | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 62.8% | 12 | 71.6% | X2 | 65.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 48.0% | away | 52.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.1% | no | 48.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.1% | away | 29.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.1% | away | 20.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.6% | home_by_2 | 10.0% | home_by_3plus | 4.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.5% | away_by_2 | 10.9% | away_by_3plus | 5.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 0-1 | 10.0% | 0-2 | 6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.9% | 0-4 | 0.9% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 1-1 | 13.5% | 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 1-3 | 3.5% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.1% | 2-1 | 7.8% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.5% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.0% | under_0.5 | 9.0% | over_1.5 | 71.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 28.5% | over_2.5 | 45.1% | under_2.5 | 54.9% |
| over_3.5 | 23.8% | under_3.5 | 76.2% | over_4.5 | 10.6% |
| under_4.5 | 89.4% | over_5.5 | 4.1% | under_5.5 | 95.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.2% | under_0.5 | 29.8% | over_1.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.9% | over_2.5 | 12.3% | under_2.5 | 87.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.9% | under_0.5 | 28.1% | over_1.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.8% | over_2.5 | 13.6% | under_2.5 | 86.4% |
most
| home | 34.4% | draw | 28.4% | away | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.9% | away_+2.5 | 95.1% | home_-1.5 | 14.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.2% | home_-0.5 | 34.4% | away_+0.5 | 65.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.8% | away_-0.5 | 37.2% | home_+1.5 | 83.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.7% | home_+2.5 | 94.3% | away_-2.5 | 5.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.0% | exact_1 | 19.5% | exact_2 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.3% | exact_4 | 13.2% | exact_5 | 6.6% |
| exact_6 | 2.7% | exact_7plus | 1.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.5% | draw | 42.0% | away | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.2% | under_0.5 | 30.8% | over_1.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.1% | over_2.5 | 11.5% | under_2.5 | 88.5% |
btts
| yes | 19.0% | no | 81.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.8% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.4% | exact_4plus | 3.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 21.4% | draw | 36.4% | away | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.8% | under_0.5 | 23.2% | over_1.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.2% | over_2.5 | 18.1% | under_2.5 | 81.9% |
btts
| yes | 25.3% | no | 74.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 24.3% | H/D | 7.9% | H/A | 4.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 9.0% | D/D | 15.3% | D/A | 17.7% |
| A/H | 0.9% | A/D | 2.9% | A/A | 17.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.6% | under_7.5 | 25.4% | over_8.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.5% | over_9.5 | 51.7% | under_9.5 | 48.3% |
| over_10.5 | 40.2% | under_10.5 | 59.8% | over_11.5 | 29.8% |
| under_11.5 | 70.2% | over_12.5 | 21.1% | under_12.5 | 78.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.7% | under_3.5 | 26.3% | over_4.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.9% | over_5.5 | 44.3% | under_5.5 | 55.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.6% | under_3.5 | 38.4% | over_4.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.9% | over_5.5 | 30.6% | under_5.5 | 69.5% |
most
| home | 54.1% | draw | 10.1% | away | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.0% | home_-1.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.3% | home_-0.5 | 54.1% | away_+0.5 | 45.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.2% | away_-0.5 | 35.8% | home_+1.5 | 73.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.6% | home_+3.5 | 87.4% | away_-3.5 | 12.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.0% | under_22.5 | 38.0% | over_24.5 | 50.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.6% | over_26.5 | 39.0% | under_26.5 | 61.0% |
| over_28.5 | 28.6% | under_28.5 | 71.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.8% | under_10.5 | 27.3% | over_12.5 | 57.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.2% | over_14.5 | 42.7% | under_14.5 | 57.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.2% | under_10.5 | 48.9% | over_12.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.5% | over_14.5 | 21.3% | under_14.5 | 78.7% |
most
| home | 63.3% | draw | 5.5% | away | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.9% | away_+4.5 | 60.1% | home_-2.5 | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 48.3% | home_-0.5 | 63.3% | away_+0.5 | 36.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.8% | away_-0.5 | 31.2% | home_+2.5 | 78.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.6% | home_+4.5 | 86.1% | away_-4.5 | 13.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.5% | under_6.5 | 27.5% | over_7.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.1% | over_8.5 | 48.9% | under_8.5 | 51.1% |
| over_9.5 | 37.6% | under_9.5 | 62.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.1% | under_3.5 | 34.9% | over_4.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.3% | over_5.5 | 33.8% | under_5.5 | 66.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.8% | under_3.5 | 46.2% | over_4.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.3% | over_5.5 | 23.0% | under_5.5 | 77.0% |
most
| home | 52.3% | draw | 12.0% | away | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.0% | away_+2.5 | 71.0% | home_-0.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.7% | home_+0.5 | 64.3% | away_-0.5 | 35.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.7% | away_-2.5 | 16.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 75.2% | under_2.5 | 24.8% | over_3.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 44.7% | over_4.5 | 35.8% | under_4.5 | 64.2% |
| over_5.5 | 20.5% | under_5.5 | 79.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 53.0% | under_1.5 | 47.0% | over_2.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.5% | under_1.5 | 36.5% | over_2.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.4% |
most
| home | 32.4% | draw | 20.6% | away | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.3% | away_+1.5 | 83.7% | home_-0.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.6% | home_+0.5 | 52.9% | away_-0.5 | 47.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.4% | away_-1.5 | 27.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 62.5% | under_20.5 | 37.5% | over_22.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 53.6% | over_24.5 | 31.3% | under_24.5 | 68.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 66.3% | under_9.5 | 33.7% | over_11.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.5% | over_13.5 | 23.9% | under_13.5 | 76.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 66.3% | under_9.5 | 33.8% | over_11.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.5% | over_13.5 | 23.9% | under_13.5 | 76.1% |
most
| home | 46.0% | draw | 8.1% | away | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.8% | away_+3.5 | 76.2% | home_-0.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.1% | home_+2.5 | 69.5% | away_-2.5 | 30.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.2% | no | 92.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Ipswich predictions · Sunderland predictions · Premier League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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