Süper Lig
Erzurumspor vs 
Samsunspor Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 46.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 71.1% for over 7.5 to 17.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.9%. Head to head on corners, Erzurumspor are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.9%, with a level count at 10.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.4% | 74.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
71.9%
56.3%
41.1%
59.3%
42.1%
27.6%
Corner handicap
| Erzurumspor line | Erzurumspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| -0.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| +1.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
This season (2026/27)
3.2Erzurumspor corners won per game4.4Erzurumspor corners conceded per game3.6Samsunspor corners won per game6.0Samsunspor corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Erzurumspor.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
46.9%Over 9.5 corners56.3%Erzurumspor over 4.5 corners42.1%Samsunspor over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Erzurumspor over 4.5 corners sits at 56.3% and Samsunspor at 42.1%. This season Erzurumspor have averaged 3.2 corners won a game and Samsunspor 3.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.9% for Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor.
Which team will win the corner count in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
The model rates Erzurumspor to win the corner count at 53.9%, with a level count at 10.7%.
How many corners do Erzurumspor and Samsunspor average this season?
Erzurumspor have won 3.2 corners a game this season and Samsunspor 3.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
