Süper Lig
Erzurumspor vs 
Samsunspor Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 73.3%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Samsunspor are favoured at 38.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erzurumspor by 1 | 18.8% |
| Erzurumspor by 2 | 10.1% |
| Erzurumspor by 3+ | 5.5% |
| Samsunspor by 1 | 20.3% |
| Samsunspor by 2 | 11.7% |
| Samsunspor by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% |
Goal handicap
| Erzurumspor line | Erzurumspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.6% | 84.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| +0.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| +1.5 | 81.4% | 18.6% |
This season (2026/27)
0.4Erzurumspor goals scored per game2.2Erzurumspor goals conceded per game1.2Samsunspor goals scored per game2.2Samsunspor goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Erzurumspor or Samsunspor on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
56.4%Both Teams to Score51.9%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Samsunspor are favoured at 38.9%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor at 73.3%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Erzurumspor at 47.0% and Samsunspor at 53.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
