Süper Lig
Erzurumspor vs 
Samsunspor Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 55.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 66.9% for over 22.5 to 31.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.0%. Between the two sides, Erzurumspor are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.4%, with a level count at 5.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 31.9% | 68.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
76.1%
61.1%
45.3%
55.2%
37.6%
23.2%
Shot handicap
| Erzurumspor line | Erzurumspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| -2.5 | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| -0.5 | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| +0.5 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.3% | 65.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
9.2Erzurumspor shots per game14.8Erzurumspor shots faced per game14.2Samsunspor shots per game16.8Samsunspor shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Erzurumspor.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
55.0%Over 24.5 shots61.1%Erzurumspor over 12.5 shots37.6%Samsunspor over 12.5 shots58.5%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Erzurumspor over 12.5 shots sits at 61.1% and Samsunspor at 37.6%. This season Erzurumspor have averaged 9.2 shots a game and Samsunspor 14.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 55.0% for Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor.
Which team will have more shots in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
The model rates Erzurumspor to take more shots at 63.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
