AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

La Liga
ElcheElcheLWDDW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1117:30UK17°C · Cloudy
ValenciaValenciaWLDDL

Elche vs Valencia cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined64.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35.7%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards64.3%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Elche vs Valencia. It tips Valencia for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.4% 18.7%
3.5 cards 64.3% 35.7%
4.5 cards 45.7% 54.3%
5.5 cards 29.2% 70.8%

Who picks up more cards

Elche
38.6%
Level
19.2%
Valencia
42.3%

Team cards lines

Elche

Over 1.5
63.2%
Over 2.5
37.0%

Valencia

Over 1.5
65.6%
Over 2.5
39.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Elche's; Valencia gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Elche line Elche Valencia
-1.5 22.1% 77.9%
-0.5 38.6% 61.4%
+0.5 57.7% 42.3%
+1.5 75.0% 25.0%

Red card

Any red card21.9%
Elche red card15.8%
Valencia red card7.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 80.3% 19.7%
22.5 fouls 68.8% 31.2%
24.5 fouls 55.7% 44.3%
ElcheElche

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Elche at home and Valencia away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ValenciaValencia
Statistic
Elche
Valencia
Yellow cards per game
2.5
2.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.7
1.0

Matches with card data
4
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 64.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 81.4% for over 2.5 to 29.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.7%. Between the two sides, Valencia are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.3%, with a level count at 19.2%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Elche over 1.5 cards sits at 63.2% and Valencia at 65.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.9% (Elche 15.8%, Valencia 7.2%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

64.3%Over 3.5 cards
21.9%Any red card
42.3%Most cards: Valencia
63.2%Elche over 1.5 cards
65.6%Valencia over 1.5 cards
68.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 64.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.9%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianValencia are the pick to collect more cards at 42.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 45.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ElcheElche

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ValenciaValencia
Statistic
Elche
Valencia
fouls per game
13.2
11.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Elche vs Valencia?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 64.3% for Elche vs Valencia.
Will there be a red card in Elche vs Valencia?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Elche vs Valencia?
The model rates Valencia to pick up more cards at 42.3%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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La LigaElche fixtures and statsValencia fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.