AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Ligue 2
DunkerqueDunkerqueLLWDL
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1119:00UK
GuingampGuingampLLLWW

Dunkerque vs Guingamp cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dunkerque vs Guingamp. Slightly more cards are projected for Guingamp for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.3% 24.7%
3.5 cards 55.4% 44.6%
4.5 cards 35.9% 64.1%
5.5 cards 20.5% 79.5%

Who picks up more cards

Dunkerque
38.9%
Level
20.9%
Guingamp
40.3%

Team cards lines

Dunkerque

Over 1.5
58.1%
Over 2.5
31.0%

Guingamp

Over 1.5
59.0%
Over 2.5
32.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Dunkerque's; Guingamp gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Dunkerque line Dunkerque Guingamp
-1.5 21.1% 79.0%
-0.5 38.9% 61.1%
+0.5 59.7% 40.3%
+1.5 77.9% 22.1%

Red card

Any red card27.2%
Dunkerque red card15.0%
Guingamp red card14.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 90.6% 9.4%
22.5 fouls 82.6% 17.4%
24.5 fouls 71.5% 28.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Dunkerque B. Roffet 2 5.0 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

DunkerqueDunkerque

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Dunkerque at home and Guingamp away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GuingampGuingamp
Statistic
Dunkerque
Guingamp
Cards per game at this venue
2.5
3.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.5
1.6

Yellow cards per game
2.5
2.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.0
1.6

Matches with more cards than the opponent
50.0%
30.0%

Matches with card data
10
10
Red cards this season
3
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 11,340 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.3% for over 2.5 to 20.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.4%. Head to head on cards, Guingamp are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.3%, with a level count at 20.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Dunkerque over 1.5 cards sits at 58.1% and Guingamp at 59.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 27.2% (Dunkerque 15.0%, Guingamp 14.4%). Dunkerque’s most frequent referee this season, B. Roffet, has averaged 5.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Dunkerque have averaged 2.8 cards a game and Guingamp 2.3.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

55.4%Over 3.5 cards
27.2%Any red card
40.3%Most cards: Guingamp
58.1%Dunkerque over 1.5 cards
59.0%Guingamp over 1.5 cards
82.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherB. Roffet, Dunkerque’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 27.2%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianGuingamp are the pick to collect more cards at 40.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
DunkerqueDunkerque

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GuingampGuingamp
Statistic
Dunkerque
Guingamp
cards per game
2.8
2.3

fouls per game
14.2
12.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.4% for Dunkerque vs Guingamp.
Will there be a red card in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
The model rates a red card for either side at 27.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
The model rates Guingamp to pick up more cards at 40.3%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 2Dunkerque fixtures and statsGuingamp fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.