AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
DijonDijonWWLLW
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1119:00UK
Red StarRed StarWWWLL

Dijon vs Red Star cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.4%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dijon vs Red Star. Slightly more cards are projected for Red Star for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.5% 28.5%
3.5 cards 50.6% 49.4%
4.5 cards 31.3% 68.7%
5.5 cards 17.0% 83.0%

Who picks up more cards

Dijon
32.4%
Level
21.3%
Red Star
46.3%

Team cards lines

Dijon

Over 1.5
50.0%
Over 2.5
23.7%

Red Star

Over 1.5
60.0%
Over 2.5
33.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Dijon's; Red Star gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Dijon line Dijon Red Star
-1.5 16.0% 84.1%
-0.5 32.4% 67.6%
+0.5 53.8% 46.3%
+1.5 73.7% 26.4%

Red card

Any red card7.9%
Dijon red card3.6%
Red Star red card4.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 93.2% 6.8%
22.5 fouls 86.8% 13.2%
24.5 fouls 77.3% 22.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Dijon E. Rosier 2 2.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

DijonDijon

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Dijon at home and Red Star away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Red StarRed Star
Statistic
Dijon
Red Star
Yellow cards per game
1.4
2.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.9

Matches with card data
3
5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 11,340 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.5% for over 2.5 to 17.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.6%. Between the two sides, Red Star are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.3%, with a level count at 21.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Dijon over 1.5 cards sits at 50.0% and Red Star at 60.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.9% (Dijon 3.6%, Red Star 4.5%). Dijon’s most frequent referee this season, E. Rosier, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

50.6%Over 3.5 cards
7.9%Any red card
46.3%Most cards: Red Star
50.0%Dijon over 1.5 cards
60.0%Red Star over 1.5 cards
86.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherE. Rosier, Dijon’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianRed Star are the pick to collect more cards at 46.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
DijonDijon

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Red StarRed Star
Statistic
Dijon
Red Star
fouls per game
16.1
17.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Dijon vs Red Star?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.6% for Dijon vs Red Star.
Will there be a red card in Dijon vs Red Star?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Dijon vs Red Star?
The model rates Red Star to pick up more cards at 46.3%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 2Dijon fixtures and statsRed Star fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.