Expected Goals (xG)

2.20Dortmund xG created/game

1.32Dortmund xG conceded/game

0.99Paderborn xG created/game

2.01Paderborn xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Dortmund have created 2.20 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Paderborn have created 0.99 xG and scored 0.67 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

73.9%Favoured: Dortmund

56.0%Both Teams to Score

67.4%Over 2.5 goals

These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Match outlook

The model leans Dortmund to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Dortmund 2 · 2 draws · Paderborn 0 · 5.0 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

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