Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs 
Schalke 04 Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 51.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.0% for over 2.5 to 17.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. On the card count, Schalke 04 are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.1%, with a level count at 21.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.5% | 82.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.1%
28.2%
56.3%
29.3%
Card handicap
| Union Berlin line | Union Berlin | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| -0.5 | 38.5% | 61.6% |
| +0.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| +1.5 | 78.5% | 21.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.8% | 74.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Union Berlin vs Schalke 04. Slightly more cards are projected for Schalke 04 for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.3%Over 3.5 cards20.1%Any red card55.1%Union Berlin over 1.5 cards56.3%Schalke 04 over 1.5 cards36.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Union Berlin over 1.5 cards sits at 55.1% and Schalke 04 at 56.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.1% (Union Berlin 5.1%, Schalke 04 15.8%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.3% for Union Berlin vs Schalke 04.
Will there be a red card in Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
The model rates Schalke 04 to pick up more cards at 40.1%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.