Shots
| Over 22.5 |
69.9% |
Over 24.5 |
58.1% |
Over 26.5 |
46.0% |
Over 28.5 |
34.4% |
| Most: Dortmund |
67.2% |
Most: Paderborn |
27.4% |
| Dortmund Over 13.2 |
57.9% |
Paderborn Over 13.2 |
29.0% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
78.8% |
Over 7.5 |
68.2% |
Over 8.5 |
56.5% |
Over 9.5 |
44.7% |
| Most: Dortmund |
62.2% |
Most: Paderborn |
26.9% |
| Dortmund Over 4.2 |
60.5% |
Paderborn Over 4.2 |
34.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
71.0% |
Over 3.5 |
50.0% |
Over 4.5 |
30.7% |
| Most: Dortmund |
38.6% |
Most: Paderborn |
39.7% |
| Dortmund Over 1.8 |
54.3% |
Paderborn Over 1.8 |
55.2% |
Dortmund: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Serhou Guirassy |
3.14 |
1.41 |
0.7 |
71.1% |
76.3% |
46.0% |
| Fabio Silva |
2.42 |
1.06 |
0.43 |
45.3% |
40.0% |
21.7% |
| Maximilian Beier |
2.39 |
0.8 |
0.41 |
41.9% |
48.2% |
24.3% |
| Ethan Nwaneri |
2.45 |
0.76 |
0.38 |
25.0% |
23.7% |
13.4% |
| Felix Nmecha |
1.27 |
0.33 |
0.14 |
22.5% |
25.8% |
10.3% |
Paderborn: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Rayan Philippe |
2.8 |
1.16 |
0.34 |
43.3% |
39.7% |
15.3% |
| Marvin Pieringer |
2.09 |
0.65 |
0.25 |
39.3% |
47.7% |
17.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Dortmund clean sheet |
37.8% |
| Paderborn clean sheet |
7.9% |
| Dortmund win to nil |
34.3% |
| Paderborn win to nil |
4.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
71.9% |
draw |
16.8% |
away |
11.3% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
88.7% |
12 |
83.2% |
X2 |
28.1% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
21.3% |
home_by_2 |
20.7% |
home_by_3plus |
30.0% |
| away_by_1 |
7.6% |
away_by_2 |
2.8% |
away_by_3plus |
0.9% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
3.5% |
0-1 |
2.5% |
0-2 |
1.4% |
| 0-3 |
0.4% |
0-4 |
0.1% |
0-5 |
0.0% |
| 1-0 |
7.5% |
1-1 |
7.7% |
1-2 |
3.4% |
| 1-3 |
1.1% |
1-4 |
0.3% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
10.0% |
2-1 |
9.3% |
2-2 |
4.3% |
| 2-3 |
1.3% |
2-4 |
0.3% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
8.5% |
3-1 |
7.9% |
3-2 |
3.7% |
| 3-3 |
1.1% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
5.4% |
4-1 |
5.0% |
4-2 |
2.3% |
| 4-3 |
0.7% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
2.8% |
5-1 |
2.6% |
5-2 |
1.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.4% |
5-4 |
0.1% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
4.6% |
likeliest_score
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
96.5% |
under_0.5 |
3.5% |
over_1.5 |
86.5% |
| under_1.5 |
13.5% |
over_2.5 |
67.4% |
under_2.5 |
32.6% |
| over_3.5 |
45.7% |
under_3.5 |
54.3% |
over_4.5 |
26.9% |
| under_4.5 |
73.1% |
over_5.5 |
13.9% |
under_5.5 |
86.1% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
92.1% |
under_0.5 |
7.9% |
over_1.5 |
72.1% |
| under_1.5 |
27.9% |
over_2.5 |
46.7% |
under_2.5 |
53.3% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
60.4% |
under_0.5 |
39.6% |
over_1.5 |
23.8% |
| under_1.5 |
76.2% |
over_2.5 |
6.8% |
under_2.5 |
93.2% |
|
most
| home |
71.9% |
draw |
16.8% |
away |
11.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
30.0% |
away_+2.5 |
70.0% |
home_-1.5 |
50.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
49.4% |
home_-0.5 |
71.9% |
away_+0.5 |
28.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
88.7% |
away_-0.5 |
11.3% |
home_+1.5 |
96.3% |
| away_-1.5 |
3.7% |
home_+2.5 |
99.1% |
away_-2.5 |
0.9% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
3.5% |
exact_1 |
10.1% |
exact_2 |
19.1% |
| exact_3 |
21.7% |
exact_4 |
18.8% |
exact_5 |
13.1% |
| exact_6 |
7.6% |
exact_7plus |
6.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
49.5% |
draw |
37.7% |
away |
12.8% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
71.7% |
under_0.5 |
28.3% |
over_1.5 |
36.0% |
| under_1.5 |
64.0% |
over_2.5 |
13.4% |
under_2.5 |
86.6% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
28.3% |
exact_1 |
35.7% |
exact_2 |
22.5% |
| exact_3 |
9.5% |
exact_4plus |
3.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
44.7% |
draw |
36.3% |
away |
19.0% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
76.1% |
under_0.5 |
23.9% |
over_1.5 |
41.9% |
| under_1.5 |
58.1% |
over_2.5 |
17.5% |
under_2.5 |
82.6% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
43.1% |
H/D |
5.1% |
H/A |
1.3% |
| D/H |
16.9% |
D/D |
13.7% |
D/A |
7.1% |
| A/H |
1.9% |
A/D |
3.3% |
A/A |
7.6% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
75.5% |
under_7.5 |
24.5% |
over_8.5 |
64.4% |
| under_8.5 |
35.7% |
over_9.5 |
52.4% |
under_9.5 |
47.6% |
| over_10.5 |
40.6% |
under_10.5 |
59.4% |
over_11.5 |
30.0% |
| under_11.5 |
70.0% |
over_12.5 |
21.2% |
under_12.5 |
78.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
80.1% |
under_3.5 |
19.9% |
over_4.5 |
66.7% |
| under_4.5 |
33.3% |
over_5.5 |
52.1% |
under_5.5 |
47.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
54.6% |
under_3.5 |
45.4% |
over_4.5 |
37.1% |
| under_4.5 |
62.9% |
over_5.5 |
23.1% |
under_5.5 |
76.9% |
|
most
| home |
64.4% |
draw |
9.6% |
away |
26.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
32.9% |
away_+3.5 |
67.1% |
home_-1.5 |
53.8% |
| away_+1.5 |
46.2% |
home_-0.5 |
64.4% |
away_+0.5 |
35.6% |
| home_+0.5 |
74.0% |
away_-0.5 |
26.0% |
home_+1.5 |
82.1% |
| away_-1.5 |
18.0% |
home_+3.5 |
92.8% |
away_-3.5 |
7.2% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
69.9% |
under_22.5 |
30.2% |
over_24.5 |
58.1% |
| under_24.5 |
41.9% |
over_26.5 |
46.0% |
under_26.5 |
54.0% |
| over_28.5 |
34.4% |
under_28.5 |
65.6% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
79.9% |
under_10.5 |
20.1% |
over_12.5 |
65.8% |
| under_12.5 |
34.3% |
over_14.5 |
50.0% |
under_14.5 |
50.0% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
54.7% |
under_10.5 |
45.3% |
over_12.5 |
36.8% |
| under_12.5 |
63.2% |
over_14.5 |
22.3% |
under_14.5 |
77.7% |
|
most
| home |
67.2% |
draw |
5.4% |
away |
27.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
43.2% |
away_+4.5 |
56.8% |
home_-2.5 |
55.4% |
| away_+2.5 |
44.6% |
home_-0.5 |
67.2% |
away_+0.5 |
32.8% |
| home_+0.5 |
72.6% |
away_-0.5 |
27.4% |
home_+2.5 |
81.8% |
| away_-2.5 |
18.2% |
home_+4.5 |
88.8% |
away_-4.5 |
11.2% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
78.8% |
under_6.5 |
21.2% |
over_7.5 |
68.2% |
| under_7.5 |
31.8% |
over_8.5 |
56.5% |
under_8.5 |
43.5% |
| over_9.5 |
44.7% |
under_9.5 |
55.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
75.5% |
under_3.5 |
24.5% |
over_4.5 |
60.5% |
| under_4.5 |
39.5% |
over_5.5 |
45.1% |
under_5.5 |
54.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
52.3% |
under_3.5 |
47.7% |
over_4.5 |
34.6% |
| under_4.5 |
65.4% |
over_5.5 |
20.8% |
under_5.5 |
79.2% |
|
most
| home |
62.2% |
draw |
11.0% |
away |
26.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
38.3% |
away_+2.5 |
61.7% |
home_-0.5 |
62.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
37.8% |
home_+0.5 |
73.1% |
away_-0.5 |
26.9% |
| home_+2.5 |
89.1% |
away_-2.5 |
11.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
71.0% |
under_2.5 |
29.0% |
over_3.5 |
50.0% |
| under_3.5 |
50.0% |
over_4.5 |
30.7% |
under_4.5 |
69.3% |
| over_5.5 |
16.6% |
under_5.5 |
83.4% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
54.4% |
under_1.5 |
45.7% |
over_2.5 |
27.5% |
| under_2.5 |
72.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
55.2% |
under_1.5 |
44.8% |
over_2.5 |
28.3% |
| under_2.5 |
71.7% |
most
| home |
38.6% |
draw |
21.7% |
away |
39.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
20.3% |
away_+1.5 |
79.7% |
home_-0.5 |
38.6% |
| away_+0.5 |
61.4% |
home_+0.5 |
60.3% |
away_-0.5 |
39.7% |
| home_+1.5 |
78.9% |
away_-1.5 |
21.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
52.0% |
under_20.5 |
48.0% |
over_22.5 |
39.9% |
| under_22.5 |
60.1% |
over_24.5 |
29.1% |
under_24.5 |
70.9% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
54.1% |
under_9.5 |
45.9% |
over_11.5 |
36.9% |
| under_11.5 |
63.1% |
over_13.5 |
23.1% |
under_13.5 |
76.9% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
57.8% |
under_9.5 |
42.2% |
over_11.5 |
40.7% |
| under_11.5 |
59.3% |
over_13.5 |
26.3% |
under_13.5 |
73.7% |
|
most
| home |
44.2% |
draw |
6.4% |
away |
49.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
26.6% |
away_+3.5 |
73.4% |
home_-0.5 |
44.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
55.8% |
home_+2.5 |
63.0% |
away_-2.5 |
37.0% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Bundesliga
Dortmund
Paderborn