ChampionshipDerby vs Birmingham Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 55.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 78.9% for over 7.5 to 24.8% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.3%. Head to head on corners, Derby are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.0%, with a level count at 10.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 45.3% | 54.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 24.8% | 75.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
76.8%
62.2%
47.0%
66.7%
50.0%
34.5%
Corner handicap
| Derby line | Derby | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.4% | 57.7% |
| -0.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| +0.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| +1.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
This season (2026/27)
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Derby.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Derby over 4.5 corners sits at 62.2% and Birmingham at 50.0%. This season Derby have averaged 5.8 corners won a game and Birmingham 6.5.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Derby vs Birmingham?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 57.0% for Derby vs Birmingham.
Which team will win the corner count in Derby vs Birmingham?
The model rates Derby to win the corner count at 53.0%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Derby and Birmingham average this season?
Derby have won 5.8 corners a game this season and Birmingham 6.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.